Why A Ryan Howard Trade Makes Sense

by Bill Baer on February 25th, 2010
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 99 Comments »

Ruben Amaro did all of his chores this off-season. Maybe he didn’t do them as satisfactorily as we would have preferred, but he did them, damn it. He signed a third baseman, acquired an ace starter he could sign to a multi-year extension, bolstered the bench, and added depth to the bullpen. He also avoided going to arbitration with Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz, and Chad Durbin.

The only chore left on the list is to determine the fate of right fielder — and cultivator of the beard that fried the Interwebs — Jayson Werth.

On Twitter, I briefly jawed with @Phylan of Fire Ruben Amaro and @Phrontiersman of Phillies Nation, discussing the possibility that Placido Polanco will only be the Phillies’ third baseman for the duration of the 2010 season, and then will move to second for 2011-12 following a trade of Ryan Howard and a shift to first base for Chase Utley. In my hypothetical, the trade of Howard would allow the Phillies to clear enough payroll space to re-sign Werth.

Phylan and Phrontiersman, rightly so, questioned if it was worth moving Utley’s bat and glove to a lesser position. Is it worth it? Let’s find out.

Placido Polanco

CHONE projects Polanco to be worth about 4 batting runs in 2010.

Additionally, CHONE projects Polanco to be worth about 6 fielding runs (obviously not from softball bats), but it’s based on his previous playing time at second base. As you know, Polanco will be manning the hot corner in Philadelphia, a position he hasn’t played full-time since 2002. Projecting him to be average (0 fielding runs) is optimistic, but let’s use it — again, for simplicity.

Polanco would get about 21.5 replacement-level runs if he were to accrue 650 PA. And then to adjust for position, we would give Polanco 2.5 runs (second and third base, as well as center field, add 2.5 runs).

All told, Polanco the third baseman is worth 4+ 0 + 21.5 + 2.5 = 28 runs above replacement, which roughly translates into 2.8 wins above replacement.

Polanco the second baseman is worth 4 + 6 + 21.5 + 2.5 = 34 runs above replacement, or about 3.4 WAR.

Going forward, the calculations will follow the same formula, so I won’t spell them out every step of the way. The positional adjustments are found here.

Chase Utley

Would Chase Utley be as good a defender at first base as he is at second? In a sample size roughly 36 times smaller, Chase has put up a 16.2 UZR/150 at first base (200 defensive innings) compared to a 15.5 at second (7200 defensive innings).

Most of his defensive value at second base stems from his range. On average, he’s good for about 14.5 range runs per 1,350 defensive innings, compared to 0.2 double play runs and 0.2 error runs. Utley’s performance in a very limited sample has shown that he has similar range at first base, but it needs to be regressed to the mean.

  • Double play runs: -0.2
  • Range runs: 1.8
  • Error runs: 0.5
  • Total: 2.1

CHONE projects him to provide about 4 fielding runs at second base.

Chase the second baseman: 33 + 4 + 21.5 + 2.5 = 61 RAR, 6.1 WAR

Chase the first baseman: 33 + 2 + 21.5 – 12.5 = 44 RAR, 4.4 WAR

We have to figure the value of Jayson Werth, Ryan Howard, and replacements at RF and 3B for 2011 and 1B for 2012. For the sake of argument, we’ll use CHONE’s WAR projection for 2010.

  • Werth: 4.7 WAR
  • Howard: 4.4 WAR

Again, for the sake of argument, we’ll assume the Phillies find an average player to fill in at right field, third base, and first base.

  • Average RF: 0 + 0 + 21.5 – 7.5 = 14 RAR, 1.4 WAR
  • Average 3B: 0 + 0 + 21.5 + 2.5 = 24 RAR, 2.4 WAR
  • Average 1B: 0 + 0 + 21.5 – 12.5 = 9 RAR, 0.9 WAR

Now we add it all up:

  • Utley, 1B: 4.4 WAR
  • Polanco, 2B: 3.4 WAR
  • Replacement 3B: 2.4 WAR
  • Werth: 4.7 WAR
  • Total: 14.9 WAR

The status quo:

  • Howard, 1B: 4.4 WAR
  • Utley, 2B: 6.1 WAR
  • Polanco, 3B: 2.8 WAR
  • Replacement RF: 1.4 WAR
  • Total: 14.7 WAR

Making the trade would cost the Phillies roughly one-fifth of a win above replacement. Of course, trading Howard with one year left on his contract would allow the Phillies the flexibility to sign Werth for several years (three + option most likely). In 2012, the Phillies would be getting about 15 WAR if they trade Howard, while getting only 11.2 WAR if Werth leaves after 2010 and let Howard leaves after 2011.

Plus, a Howard trade could net them prospects and some players who can help out at the big league level, perhaps someone who could contribute at an above-average level at third base. The Phillies’ Minor League system at present has only two prospects whom Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranks as four-star or better: Domonic Brown and Phillippe Aumont.

Like the trade of Cliff Lee, the short-term benefits of a Ryan Howard trade are marginal at best, but down the road such a maneuver would have benefits. In fact, the Lee trade is a perfect analogy: trading a star player with just one year remaining before free agency to acquire/retain someone else (Roy Halladay/Jayson Werth) who is locked up for a longer period of time.

I think that, based on the data, the domino effect of trading Ryan Howard is worth starting, but only if it was a lock that Werth would re-sign at a reasonable price. The Phillies could trade Howard and escape from his entire $20 million salary in 2011 (the more money they want to clear, the less they get back in terms of talent. Then they would re-sign Jayson Werth to a three-year, $50 million deal that is backloaded, paying him $13 million in ’11 and $18.5 million each in ’12 and ’13.

That would save the Phillies $7 million in 2011, with $125 million committed to 17 players. The top 17 Phillies this year are making a combined $136 million, so the team would actually be in better financial shape next year to round out the roster.

In short, trading Ryan Howard after the 2010 season allows the Phillies to:

  • Clear payroll space
  • Retain Jayson Werth
  • Replenish the farm system and/or acquire a productive third baseman
  • Stay competitive in 2012 and beyond, when the Phillies can lose as many as eight other players to free agency

As for caveats, there are a few. My methods for deriving the players’ level of production is somewhat arbitrary. For specificity, you would want to account for aging for all parties involved. Also excluded was base running which adds even more to the case to trade Howard, who is not a productive runner. I used CHONE projections; others may prefer another system such as PECOTA. There is also scarcity to account for, as it’s easier to find average first basemen than third basemen. Lastly, there are other scenarios in which Ryan Howard is traded that don’t involve moving Utley to first base.

Overall, though, I think I touched the most important bases. Feel free to comment and add to my case or to present a counter-argument.

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  1. 99 Responses to “Why A Ryan Howard Trade Makes Sense”

  2. By Mike Scuilli on Feb 25, 2010

    While i love werth, and I do, trading Ryan Howard for essentially jayson werth to be is crazy, I’d rather let werth walk and put the extra money in howard’s pocket. Howard is the most prolific run producer in the Major Leagues the past three or four years, if i had to choose i’d keep ryan howard and it’s not even close IMHO

  3. By Michael on Feb 25, 2010

    Very good points, I admit, but we cannot say goodbye to man who contributes 45 home runs and 135 RBI each year, all while hitting .275.

  4. By Mike Scuilli on Feb 25, 2010

    to me* not to be

  5. By Bill K on Feb 25, 2010

    I think this point just illustrates how important it is to enjoy this year–we have both of these guys.

  6. By Phillibustering on Feb 25, 2010

    So assuming the Phils were to follow this advice, what deal would be a good precedent for what they should look for in return on a Howard trade?

  7. By Peter on Feb 25, 2010

    I agree that a Howard trade makes sense. I’d rather keep Jayson Werth around than Ryan Howard, anyway.

    I’m not sold on moving Utley to 1B is the correct corresponding playing time arrangement, though. Wouldn’t it make more sense to move one of the corner OF’s (Ibanez, Werth, or Domonic Brown) to 1B? I mean, if I’m Amaro/Manuel, I want to keep Utley’s bat/glove at 2B as long as possible.

    Size-wise, all three of the corner OF’s are qualified to play 1B, and it’s extremely likely that one of the three will be able to play 1B. Their sizes (w/ Utley’s):

    Raul Ibanez – 6’2″ 225 LB
    Jayson Werth – 6’5″ 215 LB
    Domonic Brown – 6’5″ 204 LB
    Chase Utley – 6’1″ 190 LB

    If they’re getting:

    1B – Jayson Werth 4.2
    2B – Chase Utley 6.1
    3B – Placido Polanco 2.8

    Or so, all Domonic Brown has to do is be league average in RF for that to generate more WAR. The roster has a lot more upside that way because a) you’re cramming 6 wins into the starting 2B spot on your roster instead of 4.5 into 1B and b) this allows you to stick a guy with considerable upside for dirt cheap in RF.

  8. By Dan on Feb 25, 2010

    Why would you shift a much above average 2B to 1B before you have to? I agree that trading Howard to keep Werth makes sense, though. But I think it would be easier and cheaper to replace Howard at 1B than anything else.

    As far as Werth, according to fangraphs, they were both worth 21MM last year, and since Howard makes a lot more than Werth would cost as a FA, it makes a lot of sense to trade him.

    Or, if you prefer, see over a BP, where they rate Howard at 47.7 VORP and Werth at 42.8 VORP. The reason is Werth has a higher OBP than Howard, which counteracts Howard’s much higher SLG.

    Anyway, both are extremely good players, but given how much HRs are overvalued in the FA, we can get Werth for much less than Howard, and considering we can get some prospects back for Howard, it is a good idea to explore the possibility.

  9. By LarryM on Feb 25, 2010

    Not to pile on, but there is no rational case for moving Utley to first. None.

    That said, I wouldn’t hesitate to trade Howard if the right deal presented itself; I think much of the rest of your logic is sound. Won’t happen in a million years though.

  10. By MikeC on Feb 25, 2010

    Utley at first doesn’t make a lot of sense (piling on); Werth at first makes less sense – he has a rocket arm and is above-average RF. Ibanez at first makes sense, because he comes the closest to being a liability at his current position and he is also aging; he can cover the bag for the last year of his contract, and hopefully they will have someone groomed for the position after that.

  11. By Cosmo on Feb 25, 2010

    The piling must continue! There are a few key key flaws in this scenario: 1. Utley to first just seems like an absurd waste of a well above average middle-infielders talents. 2. I think the call to trade Ryan Howard is extremely similar to the ones you hear out of Milwaulkee about Prince Fielder: that its best to do it now, while he has a ton of value. Problem is, Howard’s value is in the eyes of the league arbitrators, not as much in league GMs. Not many teams can afford a $20 million first baseman, much less will sell the farm to acquire one. Howard’s value on the open market would probably shock a casual fan, and Howard himself when he goes looking for A-Rod money. 3. This trade assumes average production at 3rd and Rf to make the numbers work. However, the Phillies system has no real replacement 3rd basemen to speak of, while they have a star-potential prospect in Rf who they plan on debuting in 2011. The concept is intriguing, but I just don’t see it happening, nor do I think it should.

  12. By Phrontiersman on Feb 25, 2010

    Good points, Bill. Nice to see this in more than 140-character form.

    The argument is well-constructed, and the WAR projection for an Utley shift vs. the status quo is kind of surprising. The big caveat for me is finding a third baseman who will be worth those 2.5 wins needed to keep the balance.

  13. By Phylan on Feb 25, 2010

    Yeah, great stuff as usual. Knocking almost 2 wins off of Utley’s value sets off some irrepressible alarm bells in my head somewhere, but you’ve made a convincing case that the other adjustments in a Howard trade make up for it.

    There were a couple 2.5ish win 3Bs in 2009 – Chipper Jones (.264/.388/.430 in 596 PA), Kevin Kouzmanoff (.255/.302/.420 in 573 PA), Andy LaRoche (.258/.330/.401 in 590 PA)), and Brandon Inge (.230/.314/.406 in 637 PA). Not impossible to find. But say we trade Howard, keep Utley and Polanco at 2B and 3B and Werth in RF. Then it’s

    Utley 2B: 6.1 WAR
    Polanco 3B: 2.8 WAR
    Werth RF: 4.7 WAR
    Somebody 1B: 1.3 WAR

    and you’re back at the 14.9 WAR. Isn’t it easier to find a 1.3 WAR 1B?

    At any rate, it would be interesting to see the Philadelphia backlash for a trade that would ultimately be a good move for the Phils. I’m sure it would make the Lee reaction seem tame.

  14. By ryan on Feb 25, 2010

    I love Jayson Werth and all, but using all of these numbers is crazy. Chase is a great second baseman, moving him would be crazy. Also, it’s not like we don’t have anyone in the minors who could be ready to come up and play RF. Dominic Brown anyone?

  15. By phatti on Feb 25, 2010

    Even if the WAR numbers make sense, trading Howard would be a terrible idea. While I realize this blog doesn’t really focus on intangibles, trading Howard for a combination of prospects and non-star players would look to the fans and Phillies players like surrender. While he might be overrated, Howard is perceived as a huge star, and you don’t just dump one of those without repercussions.

    On a quantitative level, the CHONE predictions seem very low for Howard. While it may be because they project him for less playing time than he will get (barring injury), they call for him having fewer HR, BB, R, and RBI than at any point in his career, and worse OBP and SLG than in all but his 2008 campaign.

    Furthermore, while Werth had a terrific 2009 campaign, he only has a track record of two years. It seems premature to base your team around keeping him at the expense of Howard, who has had 4.5 years of success.

  16. By Phrontiersman on Feb 25, 2010

    Ryan,

    Dom projects to be a real nice prospect, but it’s no sure thing he’ll be ready for the start of 2011, or much of 2011. Plus, he won’t come up and immediately start producing at Werth’s level; that just happens way too infrequently to assume.

  17. By Dan on Feb 25, 2010

    phatti, if Werth does it again this year, he’ll have a 3 year track record. If he doesn’t, then we won’t resign him, anyway.

    I agree that if we trade Howard we’ll get big backlash from the fans, most of whom do not appreciate the value of Werth’s ability to not get as many outs as Howard does.

    How’s this for an idea? Sign Werth and keep Howard 1 more year, swallowing the extra payroll for one year, then offer Howard arbitration and let him walk, getting 2 high draft picks for him and replacing him with a FA for about 1/4 the cost who can produce about 3/4 of what Howard can. Given my doubt that we would get high prospects for Howard this next offseason, it might be our best long term plan.

  18. By MplsPhilliesFan on Feb 25, 2010

    Excellent reasoning, and there is a valid case to be made for trading Howard but I do not see the Phillies being able to retain Werth even if Howard is traded.

    Jayson will be the #2 outfielder in the free agent market next year behind only Carl Crawford and will be looking at a huge payday, possibly on the order of what Jason Bay received this year. Dollar value of the contract aside (assuming that Howard is traded and funds are available) do you think RAJ would sign an over 30 OF to a 4 or 5 year deal? Based on his previous patterm, I think the most the Phils would offer is a 3 year deal, which I think that is a smart move, and that will not be competitive with offers he would receive from other teams.

    I would expect the Phillies in 2011 to have new faces at both the RF and 1b positions, regardless of whether Ryan is traded or nor

  19. By Mike Scuilli on Feb 25, 2010

    Let’s not ignore that the phillies don’t really have any big time infielders in the farm that could replace howard, but they do have a certain outfielder that could replace werth in a year or two

  20. By LarryM on Feb 25, 2010

    It’s an indication of the nature of your audience (a good one IMO) that people are generally fine with trading Howard, but not with moving Utley to first base. A more “typical” Phillies fan site would be outraged at the former, but would only care about the latter because it would imply the former.

    I think the Phillies will do everything they can to keep Howard, probably erroneously though as it will limit their payroll flexibility. The big problem, assuming he gets at least 4 years, will be towards the end of his contract, when he will be making probably 25 million but lucky to be worth half of that.

  21. By MplsPhilliesFan on Feb 25, 2010

    Slight correction needed in my earlier post: I meant to say that the Phils would have a new RF and 1b in 2012, not 2011.

    Larry, my take on RAJ is that he knows about diminishing value and for that reason would probably not want to sign Ryan to that type of deal when he will not be worth, as you say, half the value of that contract in its final year.

    On Chase moving to 1B, I think it will happen eventually, but I am not sure the Phillies would maximize his value unless they were to obtain a really high level prospect to play 3B. Now both the Orioles and the Cubs have near major league ready propsects at 3B and both could be in the market for a 1B soon (Derek Lee will most likely be let go by the Cubs after this season), they could be trade partners who could provide value for Ryan

  22. By Bill Baer on Feb 25, 2010

    @ Phillibustering

    I don’t know that there is a direct precedent as Ryan Howard is a unique player. Not too many hitters have done what he has done in his age 26-29 years.

    What the Phillies can get in return for him depends on how much salary the other team is taking on, and the other team’s wealth in talent.

    The Red Sox would be a good trade partner, as long as they miss out on the Adrian Gonzalez sweepstakes and need a power-hitting 1B/DH going into 2011. They can afford his salary with ease and have lots of young talent to send back.

    I would think that the Phillies would be able to get one four-star prospect (to use Kevin Goldstein’s terminology) and a couple three-star prospects, similar to the Cliff Lee deal.

    @ Peter

    Wouldn’t it make more sense to move one of the corner OF’s (Ibanez, Werth, or Domonic Brown) to 1B?

    Werth has just one career inning at first base, so he would need to be willing to work long hours after the 2010 season to learn the position. Furthermore, I don’t think Werth would re-sign with the Phillies to move to an unfamiliar position, but I’m just speculating. Plus you would lose his above-average to significantly above-average defense in right field.

    Ibanez seems like the obvious option to move to first base, but that’s just a Band-aid as he’s a free agent after the 2011 season, at which point he may retire.

    One of Brown’s flaws is his outfield defense, so moving him to first base is an option. Of the three you mention, I like this the best, but only if the Phillies’ scouts conclude that his defense isn’t likely to improve in a way such that it’s worth keeping him in the outfield.

    Of course, after Ibanez leaves, the Phillies will either need to plug in Tyson Gillies or find another corner outfielder on the free agent market, which shouldn’t be too hard.

    The one issue I do see with this is, if the Phillies don’t see any hope for Brown’s defense in the outfield, they need to make that judgment quickly.

    @ Dan

    Why would you shift a much above average 2B to 1B before you have to?

    The Phillies have two second basemen. One has experience playing first base and has the bat to boot. In the article, I regressed Utley’s defense at first base to the mean, but in all likelihood he would be one of the better defenders at the position in the league.

    The value the Phillies lose in shifting Utley to first is offset by A) the value gained in shifting Polanco from third to second, B) the money saved, c) the ability to re-sign Werth to a multi-year deal, and d) the prospects/Major League talent acquired in the Howard trade.

    @ Cosmo

    However, the Phillies system has no real replacement 3rd basemen to speak of

    I was thinking the Phillies would plug the gaps with average players on the free agent market or already on the depth charts, like Ben Francisco. There is the possibility that the Phillies could find even more productive players to fill the gaps but I wanted to keep it somewhat realistic.

    @ Phylan

    But say we trade Howard, keep Utley and Polanco at 2B and 3B and Werth in RF. [...] Isn’t it easier to find a 1.3 WAR 1B?

    That’s some good thinking right there. Occam’s Razor, right?

    @ Ryan

    Chase is a great second baseman, moving him would be crazy.

    Ultimately, I think this — and again, I’m speculating — would be best long-term for Chase. He takes a beating manning second base and has traditionally worn down in the second-half of the season.

    Career first-half OPS: .934
    Career second-half OPS: .865

    Charlie Manuel vowed to rest Utley more often, which may work, but as he ages I think the best way to keep his bat fresh late in the season is to reduce his physical exertion defensively.

    @ Phatti

    I agree, trading Howard would require a lot of delicate handling in the P.R. department. However, given the success of the organization in recent years and the presumed success in the near future, I don’t think fans will revolt by not buying tickets and merchandise and such. Ruben Amaro’s job is to help the organization maximize profit. If he thinks he can continue to lure 3 million fans to the gates every season by keeping the club competitive in 2012 and beyond, then he’ll do whatever is necessary to accomplisht that goal, even if it means trading Howard. I love the comparison to the Cliff Lee trade. The Phillies could have taken on his $9 million 2010 salary and emptied the farm for Roy Halladay and signed him to the three-year, $60 million extension. That would have been great for 2010, but not for 2011 and beyond. I think Amaro thinks long-term, whereas fans tend to think short-term. Trading Howard would require a long-term vision.

    On a quantitative level, the CHONE predictions seem very low for Howard.

    Yeah, I think if you just assume he’s going to reach 700 PA again (which requires the Phillies to be a top-tier offense, not a ridiculous assumption in the least), you can tack on another 3-4 HR. I think the walks are fine where they are. He’s been getting intentionally walked less and less, and his plate discipline isn’t improving as his swing% has been increasing on pitches both inside and outside of the strike zone.

    Furthermore, while Werth had a terrific 2009 campaign, he only has a track record of two years.

    This is a very valid point. However, looking at his Minor League stats, his emergence as a power hitter isn’t a total surprise and he’s always been an efficient runner.

    Meanwhile, how do we project Howard? Most of his top-five comparables on Baseball Reference did not age gracefully:

    - Richie Sexson: Done after age 31 season, out of baseball after age 33 season
    - Cecil Fielder: Done after age 32 season, out of baseball after age 34 season
    - Mo Vaughn: Done after age 34 season, out of baseball after age 35 season
    - Willie McCovey: Aged like fine wine
    - David Ortiz: Hit the skids in his age 33 season, jury’s still out on him

    I think Howard is as big a gamble, if not bigger, than Werth going forward.

    @ Dan

    Sign Werth and keep Howard 1 more year, swallowing the extra payroll for one year, then offer Howard arbitration and let him walk, getting 2 high draft picks for him and replacing him with a FA for about 1/4 the cost who can produce about 3/4 of what Howard can.

    The Phillies wouldn’t have the payroll space unless they were willing to increase it. If they weren’t willing to increase it to keep Lee, I don’t think they would do it to keep Werth, especially with Brown waiting in his shadow.

    @MplsPhilliesFan

    Based on his previous patterm, I think the most the Phils would offer is a 3 year deal, which I think that is a smart move, and that will not be competitive with offers he would receive from other teams.

    This is absolutely worth considering. The Bay contract will have a direct influence on what Werth will make, and so will Carl Crawford’s contract should he sign earlier. If Jayson is willing to give the Phillies a hometown discount to stay with a contender for 3-4 more years, this would work out. In the article, I hypothetically had Werth signed to a three-year, $50 million deal with an option for a fourth year, but that may be optimistic.

    _____

    Let me know if I missed anything.

  23. By Zach M on Feb 25, 2010

    I think Werth is more valuable for the Phils at 50m/3yrs than Howard at 100m/5yrs, so Trading him may make sense or just spending the “future” money on Werth. I understand Placido may not work out at 3rd this year or in 3. My problem is Utley is not a first baseman. It may be disrespectful to replace him with the dude he replaced. However, if Utley does WANT to move, then we need to find a quality replacement at third; is Brandon Inge a good fit?

    I think the main problem is free agent classes for the next 2 yrs. I think this next off season will be relatively weak. Werth is 3rd best FA behind two monsters : Pujols and Crawford. I think both will command contracts above Lackey Bay and Holliday. Which makes Werth the value deal…at below $18, which I don’t believe the Phils will go for unless he is below $13-14.

    The next year Howard will be up against a heavy 1B FA. Which may clog the market???

    I think Howard is more risky long term than Werth though.

  24. By Richard Heater on Feb 25, 2010

    Don’t you have any fears about Werth’s health? He has remained pretty healthy for two years, but is career has been marred by injuries. A contract of that amount, especially backloaded, could just end up being a drain.

  25. By phatti on Feb 25, 2010

    @Bill

    Using those similarity scores to project Howard is probably inaccurate for several reasons.

    1. Sexson is the only one with a similarity score higher than 900, i.e. truly similar. In his essay introducing similarity scores, Bill James says that a lack of true comps is a sign of uniqueness and quality.
    2. Howard started later than most of those players, so for counting stats, they have at least one extra season thrown in there.
    3. Except for McCovey, Howard’s statistics are clearly better than his comps, which projects a better future than them.
    4. The next set of four players have almost identical similarity scores than Ortiz, and had far more impressive and long lasting careers: Tony Clark (the exception), McGwire, McGriff, and Delgado. Howard’s OPS+ is closer to McGwire and Delgado than Sexson, Ortiz, or Fielder.

    So, using similarity scores, it seems that Howard is as likely to have a very strong second half of his career as he is of fading fast.

  26. By MplsPhilliesFan on Feb 25, 2010

    Bill, I thank you for your response. If Werth would be willing to accept a deal such as you suggest at 3 years $50 million, I think that is something the Phillies could pay and maintain payroll flexibility, should they trade Ryan. If Jayson has a year even close to what he had last year, he would be asking for a 4 year deal minimum and might want to hold out for a 5 year deal. The history of injuries is a valid concern, but if he is able to stay healthy for 3 years, I think they will be overlooked.

    You mentioned Boston as a possible trade partner should Ryan be moved, and I listed the Orioles and the Cubs. I think an AL team is much more likely to trade for him, as within 3 years Ryan will probably transition to a DH full time. Another team came to mind that might have an interest in Howard and has a deep farm system: Texas Rangers. Their ownership situation would need to be resolved, but that should happen at some point in 2010, and trading for Howard would send a clear signal that they want to compete in an AL West where the Angels are weakening.

  27. By Bill Baer on Feb 25, 2010

    Richard,

    Werth doesn’t have an injury history, really. He dealt with wrist issues but they were fixed up a few years ago.

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081007&content_id=3601110&vkey=ps2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

    I’ll get to other comments later. I have to do a few errands before the snow piles up.

  28. By Phillies Red on Feb 25, 2010

    Great write up per usual; really shows that the phils have a difficult choice in front of them, but that if they play it well, they can again get long term security and short term production.

    A couple of thoughts. First, it seems the key to the analysis is figuring out exactly who are viable options for replacement at RF, 3B, and 1B. One the one hand, it seems a little ambitious to suppose that the Phils can just find average players out there for these roles; average players can be hard to come by at times. On the other hand, the Phils may already have slightly above average players at some of these positions, simply waiting for a chance to step up. I’m thinking of Ben Fran, who CHONE already projects to be above average this year, at 2.2 WAR (which of course he won’t reach unless he becomes a starter). So the baseline comparison ought not to include some average RF, but Ben Fran; the added WAR tilts the balance, when considering player production, in favor of keeping Howard, especially if you consider that Gload might be able to platoon with Ben once in a while, squeezing a touch more value out of RF.

    Secondly, you mention the monetary savings in trading Howard, but you don’t necessarily put this back into your equation. You say that trading Howard would save maybe $7M, but remember, you now have to go buy either 3B or 1B production (unless you’re willing to settle for replacement level – Andy Tracy anyone?). Using what we know about WAR and the market, $7M only buys you 1.5-2 WAR, depending on how the market shapes up next off season. That means that to get the 2.4 WAR you’re projecting out of the replacement 3B you’ll need to spend more than the $7M savings from trading Howard. Saving gone.

    A possible way around this is to keep Utley at 2B. So let’s compare these situations:

    Now we add it all up:

    Replacement 1B: ?? WAR
    Utley, 2B: 6.1 WAR
    Polanco, 3B: 2.8 WAR
    Werth: 4.7 WAR
    Total: 13.6 WAR + $7M savings

    The status quo:

    Howard, 1B: 4.4 WAR
    Utley, 2B: 6.1 WAR
    Polanco, 3B: 2.8 WAR
    Francisco RF: 2.2 WAR
    Total: 15.4 WAR

    So that leaves us with the $7M savings to make up the difference in these situations. The difference is 1.8 WAR. It’s a lot easier to buy 1.8 WAR with $7M than it is to buy 2.4 (or actually 2.2) WAR, which is what you have the Phils doing in the original scenario.

    But by this calculation (please correct me if I missed something), it’s still not really clear what the Phils should do, as it actually might be less risky to keep Howard and play Ben Fran than to try to buy a 2 WAR 1B with the $7M savings. That’s why to do this analysis correctly, we’d need to know more about who we think will be available in the 1B market next year. We’d even want to make better predictions about how Werth and Howard will age, and we’d want to know what kind of prospects we could get for Howard. I think we need reasoned estimates of these factors to really decide which course of action is the smartest from a short term and long term perspective.

    Sorry for the long post.

  29. By Bill on Feb 25, 2010

    In all fairness to this analysis, I think the most likely thing the Phillies front office will do is just insert Dom Brown into Jayson Werth’s spot in RF. It’s tough to argue with that from a PR standpoint (Werth will cost a lot of money, Brown is a highly rated prospect by everyone, Phillies are getting old, etc.).

    As far as Howard comps: it’s been discussed on Fangraphs a few times that his statistical comparison has quite a few people but in terms of actual hitting there are very few comparisons. Most sluggers like him tend to have very strong pull-power and hit the majority of HR’s to right field when they’re young, then as they age their power saps. Howard is well known to hit the majority of his HRs to the opposite field, and there’s really nobody like him to compare. Now, that doesn’t mean he is immune to decline, but it should be noted he won’t necessarily age like the rest of those guys, especially if he stays in good shape and injury free.

  30. By Steve on Feb 25, 2010

    This might be the most ridiculous thing I have ever read….

  31. By Doug Harrison on Feb 25, 2010

    The premise that Howard should be traded ignores the psychology of baseball. Confidence is of critical importance. The Phillies are arrogantly confident right now. Much of that conmfidence is due to the Howard effect. He hits the long ball and turns the game around more often than anybody including Puhols. Everyone else is under less pressure because he might do it. Utley is the best player on the team, but Howard is the most valuable (important).

  32. By John K on Feb 25, 2010

    Your statistics are bullcrap. However, assuming that Polanco is good for a few more years; and that the Phillies could obtain a 3B like Ryan Zimmerman and a top notch pitcher like Cliff Lee; your idea might not be too bad. Get rid of all of your bullcrap stats and come up with real names that we can digest.

  33. By Phylan on Feb 25, 2010

    Yeah it’s time we ditched these fairly precise player valuations for more tangible things like sports psychology and CONFIDENCE

  34. By Bill Baer on Feb 25, 2010

    @ Phillies Red

    Feel free to write a book here if you need to do so, I enjoy reading comments like that. What you wrote makes a lot of sense, that’s why I like to have other people comment here. It gets stuffy if it’s just me pontificating all the time.

    @ Bill

    I think the P.R. angle depends on how the Phillies fare this year. If the Phillies don’t make it back to the World Series, fans might get antsy and beg for something drastic to be done — as reactionary as they are. That might make a trade of Howard easier for the public to swallow.

    You’re right about Howard. I called him a “unique player” earlier in the comments. Hard to think of another player who fits his mold. As odd as it is, it might be Prince Fielder, but he doesn’t hit to the opposite field as much as Howard.

  35. By derekcarstairs on Feb 26, 2010

    The Phillies are one of the top three teams in baseball now. If they trade Howard and make changes in the manner you suggest, I think they are no longer an elite team.

    On the other hand, if they keep their core of Werth, Howard, Rollins and Utley as well as Halladay and Hamels, the Phils can remain elite for the next five years.

    To save money, the Phils should look to move other players on the roster. Possible moves:
    1. Trade Ibanez after 2010. He’s old and expensive ($11.5 million). Use Ibanez’ money to sign Werth and replace Ibanez with Brown sometime in 2011.
    2. Let Lidge go after 2011 ($12 million). Replace Lidge with Aumont in 2012 or go outside the organization for a cheaper alternative than Lidge. That frees up enough money to more than cover the increase that Howard will require.
    3. Trade Victorino after 2011 for a good prospect. Replace him with Gillies/Gose/etc. beginning in 2012.
    4. Sign Rollins to an extension after 2011 for $12 million per. The savings from the Lidge and Victorino contracts would cover the increase in Rollins’ salary.
    5. Sign Hamels to an extension after 2011 or 2012. Save additional money by trading Polanco after 2011 or letting him go after 2012. Replace Polanco with a cheaper and younger alternative from outside the organization. Bring up somebody like Ramirez, May, etc. to fill a spot in the rotation. Fill some bullpen slots from within the organization beginning in 2010 with Bastardo, Mathieson, etc.

    Two other points:
    First, it’s not at all clear that, to sign an extension, Werth must be paid the $16 million per that Bay (4 years) and Holliday (7 years) are getting. After all, Werth’s track record is nowhere near that of either Bay or Holliday. Werth is 30 years old now, and he has played only one full season in the majors in a non-platoon role. Another version of the negative argument is that Werth has been in pro ball since 1997 and has not accomplished much. Werth could be signable to a contract between three years and $35 million ($12 million per) to four years and $55 million ($14 million per).
    Second, if we trade Howard after 2010, the return the Phils get may not be that attractive. He would be entering 2011 at age 31 with only one year remaining on his contract. Times are changing, and GMs do not value 31-year-old stars as much as they did a few years ago. Only a few teams can afford him. I don’t think the Yankees have players that we want. The Bosox won’t part with Lester, Westmoreland and Kelly for Howard, who is worth more to us than he is to other teams.

    One pet peeve: frequently, we see Howard referred to as a 40-HR, 120-RBI guy. Let’s not understate his accomplishments. Howard has played four full seasons and, in those four seasons, has averaged 50 HRs, 140+ RBIs with a .961 OPS. Howard is one of a kind.

  36. By Don on Feb 26, 2010

    ….and you lose the gaping strikeout hole in the middle of your lineup, and … is it possible that another hitter moves up from the farm? If Howard ups his OBP and BB this year then you have to reconsider. The lack of walks is what makes him tradeable

  37. By Darren on Feb 26, 2010

    Are you and anyone who thinks this is a good idea smoking crack. Seriously you do not trade a Ryan Howard. Howard has single handedly carried this team at times. Aug, Sept and the playoffs. Remember the Houston Series and Dodgers all Ryan Howard. Also stop with the trade Ibanez, if he is old and makes alot of money who is going to trade for him. Home team fans are moronic when it comes to trades they come up with. I heard when they traded Cliff Lee someone said they should trade Jamie Moyer instead. Come on now. WAKE UP PEOPLE

  38. By James on Feb 26, 2010

    Trade the best player you’ve ever had?

    I think not, and I’m a Yankee fan. Howard has the potential to do what Sosa, Mac and Arod have not. Hit home runs legitimately.

    He has a chance, and a pretty good one to go down as one of the all time great when baseball really needs an honest guy.

    Why on earth would you trade him? There is nothing out there comparable to the value of Ryan Howard. Nothing anywhere.

  39. By Matt on Feb 26, 2010

    Trade a once in a lifetime player so we could keep a guy who’s played one full year as a starter? Howard’s numbers since he came up are BETTER than pujols. Would you trade him? Besides we are only talking a couple million. Idiot.

  40. By Austin on Feb 26, 2010

    This article should be called “Why calling myself an idiot makes sense.”

    Please don’t insult fans with an article like this ever again.

  41. By Klaus on Feb 26, 2010

    I like what Phillies Red wrote, but it seems to me the primary benefit of trading Howard and keeping Werth doesn’t lie in WAR values for any given year, but in the simple fact that we’ll be keeping Werth, for several years going forward (whereas Howard is unaffordable in any case, Werth or no). In other words, it’s the value of having one 4+ WAR player, post 2011, year after year, rather than none.

  42. By vollmer on Feb 26, 2010

    you people who think you should trade howard are on meth let werth go we have a top prospect outfielder in dom brown.now if you want to do what these meth head reporters say is y you are not and never will have a chance at becoming a gm of any baseball team. trade your core away and the phillies will get better ha. howard is part of that core!now if u trade howard away, u need to think of things we will even get for him in return cause teams moving for the big man wont be willing to give up what we would want in return for him.yes moving chase to first and polonco to second would be an idea but a dumb one. now with that move you have a possibility to resign werth but not a definate yes he says he wants to stay here but not if he isnt going to get payed.then you have to worry about getting a third baseman in here a skill position that we have zero depth in at the minor league levels.thats going to run 6-12 million if your going to keep a high caliber offence.in which is gone once you get rid of your cleanup batter in howard this man averages 40 home runs and 125 rbis a year and you want to suggest to trade this key person that got us where we are today.crackheads!

  43. By machonorris on Feb 26, 2010

    Trading Howard may make sense long-term, but trading him solely to sign Werth long-term does not make sense. All you are doing is trading a superior player to retain a lesser player (albeit a very good one). If you are going to trade Howard, it should be with an eye on 2012 when he is a free agent. Therefore, it would seem the Phillies may be on the decline after 2011 (lots of free agents, lots of players over 30). Therefore, for the Phillies to play at this level beyond 2011, they will need to establish some younger players (like Brown). Having Werth signed long-term will tie up money on a player that presently is very good but 2 years from now is likely to be on the decline and not producing in step with his contract.

    Trading Howard (after 2010 or 2011) and not resigning Werth will clear up a lot of money and the Howard trade may bring back prospects that are major-league ready. If the Phillies are not thinking like that for the long-term, then that is a problem.

    I believe they are playing for it all in 2010 and 2011 and after that we will be stepping back, so moves should be made with a long-term eye on retooling for 2013. Signing Werth beyond a 2 or 3 year deal will likely wind up being counter-productive. I am also guessing he will get better offers (more years) on the market.

  44. By Kevin on Feb 26, 2010

    I didn’t read all of the previous posts, so maybe someone brought this up, but I think the idea (or hope) is that Dom Brown will replace Werth’s productivity. If you re-sign worth you only continue to delay the development (both physically and mentally) of the Phillies’ top prospect.

  45. By vollmer on Feb 26, 2010

    kevin you are smart and you can post on here smartest comment on here!

  46. By vollmer on Feb 26, 2010

    but when you are at age 30 in baseball you are in your prime 27-34 are your prime years in baseball

  47. By vollmer on Feb 26, 2010

    man reading these peoples comments makes me sick yes you can talk all day about it being a good trade and sabermetric reports and your stats but when it all comes down in the end and we still have howard and we are in the world series again i guarantee every one of you people saying trade howard and keep werth are going to shut up when howard cracks 50 home runs and werth has a flop year.remember werth just played in his first full season howard is in his 5th keep howards slugging and get rid of werth at the trade deadline for some pitching if his numbers are supposed to be that goddamn good then you move the expendable asset at the deadling then you have dominick brown come up and fill the void!

  48. By Tomas on Feb 26, 2010

    From a bussines stand point I’d do it. I mean Howard is one of the best players in the game, and he has been part of the big trio(Utley, Howard, and Rollins) that kills the opposing pitcher. Polanco is a better glove than Utley at second, and I know Utley can handle first base. Howard is a free agent at the end of 2011, and is gonna ask for a huge contract, and as of right now he is earning 19-20 million a year. Werth is gonna demand at least 3 yrs worth 45 million with a 15 million option.

    If they trade Howard to Boston, maybe they can get Adrian Beltre, Junichi Tazawa and a good infield propect. This gives them a heck of a defensive team, I’d bet Beltre takes advantage of Citizens ballpark, and more righty leftie balance in the lineup. Tazawa is a good pitching prospect who is close to being ready and could definitely be a very good candidate to fill the last spot in the rotation.

    Can you imagine that team…..SS Jimmy Rollins, 2B Placido Polanco, 1B Chase Utley, RF Jason Werth, LF Raul Ibañez, 3B Adrian Beltre, CF Shane Victorino, and C Carlos Ruiz

  49. By Mike on Feb 26, 2010

    I agree with much of the analysis here, but I also agree with the opinion that Howard is a once in a lifetime player. He hits the ball hard to any part of the field.

    The ONLY way I would make this trade as Ruben is if I was being offered multiple top 50 prospects that are major league ready. The deal has to make sense long term, and long term we need a SS, LF, 3B, SP and 1B is Ryho is traded.

    If we can get that kind of haul, then trading Howard is the most logical play, even if the city has some emotional ties to him.

  50. By Brad C on Feb 26, 2010

    Ryan Howard’s power numbers over his first 4.5 seasons are those that rank certainly in the top 5 of all time. His power and ability to hit in the clutch CANNOT be replaced. He ranks just behind Pujols in the NL as the most feared hitter. Werth has only put one full year together. If anyone gets moved its him.

  51. By Zach M on Feb 26, 2010

    The negative arguments for Werth will be thrown out once other teams want his 30hrs and understated star power.

    Howard does carry us threw certain points of the year but I never expect him to be as consistent as Werth. I expect him to have a monster year, but that will not be worth the 25 million a year deal he will go after. His history tells us that he wants big deals.

    That said I would not trade Howard unless we get some mammoth compensation, and Werth still has to probe he can have a huge year. I mean we just may be talking about trading Werth in 4 months.

    Vollmer is talking out of his ass and thinks he can see the future.

    Victorino would be a good trade prospect. I like him but he is way over hyped due to fans. It is basically all summed up in his all star selection although I believe he deserved it in my bias.

  52. By Phil Cherry on Feb 26, 2010

    The amount of INTANGIBLES being thrown around here are baffling. Howard is not the Phillies top position player (no, that would be Chase Utley) and is set for a major regression as time passes. The math bears out quite a simple argument, that trading Ryan Howard and then mixing and matching could be exactly what the Phillies need to continue being competitive.

    For all the people hollering about the 2009 Playoffs and Ryan Howard’s worth, let’s remember this guy also holds the record for World Series strikeouts.

  53. By Davis on Feb 26, 2010

    Trading Howard isn’t a horrible idea if it means your keeping Werth. Simply replacing Werth with Dom Brown and keeping Howard makes this line-up even more vulnerable to left-handed pitching. This line-up has to have at least one big right-handed bat.

    As far as position changes, you won’t lose defense by moving Utley to first and sliding Polanco to second. Polanco is a gold glove fielder at second. This trade makes sense if you get a solid third baseman and two high level prospects (including a pitcher).

    Right or wrong, the Phillies seem determined not to let their payroll go much higher. As a result, some decisions the fans aren’t going to like will be made.

  54. By MplsPhilliesFan on Feb 26, 2010

    I realize I may be opening myself up to quite a bit of hate, but I just do not see the argument that Howard is an irreplaceable, once in a lifetime player. Is he good, yes, absolutely. He is also, y all accounts, an excellent teammate and a very nice, intelligent young man. However, he is not the best position player on this team and his accomplishments have been overstated. According to baseball-reference, Howard has never lead the NL in Slugging or OPS, although he has done well when looking at Total Bases and Extra Base hits.

    No one is saying he is a bad player, but he is someone for whom there are not a lot of comparable values in history but whose body type suggests he may not age gracefully.

    Combine those facts with what we expect to be very high salary demands and it becomes logical to at least explore trading him after the 2010 season to maximize his value

  55. By chris on Feb 26, 2010

    so how does your stupid rating system analyze a down year or an injury. Why would you wanna keep jayson werth over ryan howard? lets see you could have a player putting up historic numbers, numbers that only babe ruth and sammy sosa put up, or you could have a player who had one good season, has a shitty work ethic, but shows promise. Ill take the garuntee for an extra 8-10 mil. Look at the numbers that worked for a 150 years, not the numbers some nerd made to adjust for bs. how about this stat geeks, why dont you actually watch the game instead of trying to be gm’s. go play mlb the show

  56. By chris on Feb 26, 2010

    who caees about strikeouts, if hes doesnt have the highest slugging or ops who cares, as i recall he has been in the top 2 in hr’s and rbi’s in all of major league baseball. so you can have the guy who gets a walk with a man on second. ill take the guy who strikes out trying to drive the run in. idiots

  57. By Phrontiersman on Feb 26, 2010

    Yo, Chris, calm down. It’s baseball. You obviously don’t take the modern approach to evaluating talent, but that doesn’t entitle you to spout off in a derogatory fashion.

  58. By PaapFly.com on Feb 26, 2010

    James, Matt, Austin, Vollmer, Brad C – if you don’t like the content, go read the garbage the beat writers and mainstream media write. You scream and rant about how Howard is basically the greatest player ever, but provide no evidence. Utley is a far greater player, but you probably don’t understand that. His (Howards) accomplishments are inflated by ballpark, but most importantly, because he has a guy like Utley constantly on in front of him.

    You sound precisely like the Yankees fans on the fangraphs, tigers thread yesterday. If you want to pretend it’s 1941, go ahead. Just don’t try and drag your ignorant beliefs into an intelligent baseball discussion.

  59. By PaapFly.com on Feb 26, 2010

    Hey Chris, pssst, RBI are meaningless. Don’t faint.

  60. By AirBed Guy on Feb 26, 2010

    Trading Howard makes sense if you can move Ibanez to first. He is the biggest defensive liability on the team, so the further you can get him away from the outfield, the better.

    Trading Howard also makes sense if you can get a strong SS, C or 3B prospect in return, areas where the Phillies are sorely lacking.

    This summer will truly establish his value and whether or not a deal is actually possible. The Padres are almost certain to move Gonzalez and Howard will have more value than Gonzalez. That said, what teams have the money to spend $20 mm a season on a 1B? Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, and White Sox. Yankees are set a 1b, and my guess is that the Phillies would prefer to trade Howard to an AL team so that eliminates the Dodgers, Mets and Giants, which leaves you the Red Sox, Angels and White Sox. Red Sox have already talked to the Padres about a trade. If that deal goes down, there will be a slim market for Howard.

  61. By PaapFly.com on Feb 26, 2010

    Howard has LESS value. He is way more expensive, and quite frankly, not nearly as good.

  62. By MG on Feb 26, 2010

    You are putting together one of the best Phils’ blogs out there. This was well-thought out with plenty of rationale justifications.

    Only question is this – besides the huge public relations hit the Phils would take from trading Howard (likely most popular fan favorite after Utley) – What teams are going to be able to take on a $20M salary for a 1B and what effects will the impending FA of both Fielder and A. Gonzalez the following offseason have on Howard’s trade value?

    Howard is a very good player and his power is very hard to replace but I just don’t know how much he brings in return with only a year left on his contract, limited places he could be traded to, and the impending FA of Fielder and A. Gonzalez the following season.

  63. By John on Feb 26, 2010

    Just keep them both and put the best team on the field… Stupid idea to trade Howard

  64. By deebo on Feb 26, 2010

    1B is infinitely easier to replace than RF. if howard can be traded to the BoSox for a SP and SS candidate the phils could sign dan uggla to play either 2B or 1B with utley manning the other. howard’s .270 BA and 200 k’s are the important stats. if you can surpass his OBP the HRs and RBI become less important because they get picked up by #5 and #6. the strikeouts don’t move any available runers along. get some prospects and let him go and be a freakshow in the AL. werth can slide into the cleanup spot, take hs 7 pitches each at bat and go 290/35/120 every year provided the leadoff guy has an OBP of .350 plus.

  65. By Mike P on Feb 27, 2010

    Bill,

    I don’t necessarily agree with your analysis, but I can appreciate the detail and care that you employed to assemble it. As always, well done.

    @Paapfly

    I can understand that Howard benefits from having Utley in front of him, but let’s keep in mind that Werth also benefits from having Howard (and Utley) in front of him. How would he respond to losing this kind of protection? It’s hard to say.

    My biggest problem with moving Howard is that the current Phillies lineup is centered around Howard in the 4th position. Moving Howard changes the pitches that Utley sees (with Howard behind him) and that Werth sees (with Howard in front of him). All things considered, I think that Howard is a more important piece of the lineup, and that the Phils could cope with losing Werth, while losing Howard would be crippling to the lineup. But, Bill, I certainly understand your logic.

    Of course, I’m talking more about current stats and less about projected stats. That’s what makes this question so difficult. Nobody likes trying to predict the future.

    In all, I think it’s an impossibly difficult decision, and I’m glad that I’m not the one who has to make it.

  66. By Phrontiersman on Feb 27, 2010

    Mike,

    Can you point me in the direction of research that confirms how protection affects pitches seen and, as a result, batter performance?

  67. By Michael N on Feb 27, 2010

    Are we so use to Howard’s production that we think it can be easily be made up. No offense to Werth but keeping him at around 15mil a season while trading away Howard is just not the right move. I think we should be looking at somebody that would be willing to take on Ibanez contract then allocating that money to Howard and Werth to keep them here long term. Then we could move up Dom Brown to take over left or right and would then put up the best outfield defense in baseball. Boy how I wish we had sign Burrell for a year or 2 then we would be able to keep both of these players.

  68. By chris on Feb 27, 2010

    rbi’s are meaningless??? you just proved my point about how dumb stat geeks really are.

    to your modern point dont make me laugh. you dont watch baseball, i was in the first row of everygme in the 2009 season and saw everypitch everyone faced. ryan howards value > than jayson werths.

    why would the red sox do that trade for a sp and a ss and why the hell do you want dan uggla. you guys are idiots go to a game watch it and enjoy the season when yuo have both. but i know none of you will do that, instead of watching the game youll have your calculator out trying to figure out numbers that mean nothing.

    “i could hit .400 too if i didnt swing for the fences.” _ruth

    yea i know another player that thinks like that, and is the only player in the major to put up similar stats. Ryan howard

  69. By chris on Feb 27, 2010

    and why would chase utley go to first base when if he keeps playing he’ll be right there with jeff kent and rogers hornsby as the best 2bs of all time

  70. By Mike P on Feb 27, 2010

    @Phrontiersman

    It’s true. I don’t have any stats to suggest that “protection” in a lineup or that hitting in a stronger lineup makes a significant difference in a hitter’s stats. In my response, I was trying to counter Paapfly’s point about Howard benefiting from hitting behind Utley by suggesting that Utley could also benefit from hitting in front of Howard or that Werth could benefit from hitting behind Howard. In doing so, I accepted his terms of the debate. I suppose one could have responded by questioning those terms and saying “What proof do you have that Howard’s stats are better because he hits behind Utley?”, but I didn’t feel like that would get us anywhere.

    I guess the most scientific way to deal with this would be to examine Howard’s stats when Utley’s out of the lineup, but that would take far more time than I can afford to invest in baseball stats on a Saturday afternoon. Plus, given the relatively small sample size, I’m not sure how much it would tell us.

  71. By derekcarstairs on Feb 27, 2010

    Bill – What you are saying essentially is that the Phillies would have just as good a team by getting rid of Howard, shifting a couple of defensive positions and replacing Howard’s bat with an average 3B (maybe a Jhonny Peralta). When looked at this way, your suggestion is ludicrous.

    I think the real problem here is misapplication of WAR. I think WAR is good at certain player comparisons, but such player comparisons are inadequate for lineup construction, identification of the synergistic effects of various player combinations, evaluation of complex player transactions or prediction of the results of baseball games (After all, the bottom line is winning baseball games, and the question before us is this: would the Phils win more games with Howard at 1B or Peralta at 3B?).

    Just considering offense, I think it would be easy to put together a winning lineup in WAR terms by just selecting nine sluggers who strike out a lot. In real baseball, however, an ideal lineup could be formed with a split of guys with high OBP, low strikeouts and little power and other guys with high OPS. The first team would win a WAR contest on paper. The second team would win more actual games.

    Let me drive my point home further with this snippet. We know that three consecutive solo homers is no better than two walks followed by a HR. Yet, in WAR terms, the former suggests a much better result than the latter.

    Has anyone ever attempted to go over the performances of players in actual MLB games to compare the actual scores with what WAR would have produced? Or any other existing sabermetric measure? Has anyone ever attempted to incorporate the randomness of hitting events in measuring performance?

    I am a believer in sabermetrics, Bill James and his descendants, but the science has many remaining unsolved problems. Sabermetrics is much more sophisticated than fantasy baseball, but much less so than the game itself.

  72. By Bradley on Feb 27, 2010

    why in the world would we trade a younger guy who produces 40+ hrs and 120+ rbis evry year over an older guy who produces 30+ hrs and 100+ rbis every year? i certainly don’t want to lose Werth, he’s a fantastic player, but cmon trade howard and we lose that big power lefty in our lineup that we need. plus this whole WAR thing is absolutely pathetic…. move polanco back to 2nd and utley to 1st???? cmon now

  73. By derekcarstairs on Feb 27, 2010

    Bill – I re-read your post and realize that your suggestion is not ludicrous since you assume either Werth or Howard will go. Sorry about my characterization. I do not agree, however, that it is inevitable that either will go. My first post here discusses that.

    I also do not agree with your use of WAR to shape the Phils’ lineup for the reasons I set forth in my second post.

  74. By PaapFly.com on Feb 28, 2010

    Chris – I can’t speak for others, but I do watch baseball, as often as I can, in fact. RBI counts aren’t particularly useful for understanding a hitters utility, but that’s fine if you disagree. I’m sure you believe the good old W is the end all for pitchers too, good luck with that. Oh, and we use Excel, not a calculator.

  75. By PaapFly.com on Feb 28, 2010

    I was speaking mostly to Howards inflated numbers regarding RBI. Utley is on constantly and runs so well. He’s clearly the superior player to Howard. He’s prob the best 2B in the NL 5 straight years defensively. Also, his wOBA generally higher because he gets on more… What’s more, way better runner and mucher better contact percentage. Howards a good, borderline great hitter. Not taking away from him. It’s just people always highlight the RBI which is a mistake. His oppo power and overall power is legendary though. I’d need to see Werth at another home yard and for a year or 2 longer to really be sold on him… He’s a good player. I’m Just not sure he’s very very good overall just yet. Late bloomer for sure though… Like Utley.

  76. By Bojangles on Feb 28, 2010

    THIS JUST IN: HOWARD to METS for fernando martinez, oliver perez, pat misch, luis castillo, and daniel murphy.

    Great move by the phils. Not only do they free up cap room for werth but they also get a .300 hitter in castillo. fernando martinez best prospect for the mets enough said. If perez is really in the best shape of his life he could give you a respectable 15-6 record. All in all great move by the phils just dnt know why they traded him to a division rival

  77. By Bradley on Feb 28, 2010

    nobody listen to bojangles…he is my stupid Mets fan cousin he’s just tryin to rouse up a rumor (nice goin bryson)

  78. By Bojangles on Feb 28, 2010

    why would i try to start a rumor about howard coming to the mets because he strikes out every year at least 200 times think about that

  79. By bill on Feb 28, 2010

    One word can sum up this article….Ridiculous!!! Because we essentially trade for Polanco who hasn’t played the position since 2002, so we can trade Howard to keep Werth, definitely worth keeping I might add, he WILL continue to improve I think, is NOT, I repeat NOT a valid enough reason to trade Howard. Regardless of his paycheck, Howard impresses me in a single way. Despite the massive home run barrage he displays year after year, he is not content on just doing enough, he wants the game on his shoulder, he is constantly trying to make strides to improve his overall game and he is a competitor; which I think by nature, is the most important. Competitors want to win every game not just the important ones, and that’s passion, that’s the stuff that gets teams going, you need that in the dugout and simply replacing that to free cap room I’m sorry is not enough to warrant those remarks. SORRY!!! You hope to have people like that in your dugout and with Ryan Howard you do.

  80. By Phylan on Feb 28, 2010

    So it’s ridiculous because you’ve certified Howard as a “competitor” by your own personal definition, which is relevant to actual production how exactly?

  81. By Bill Baer on Feb 28, 2010

    No, Phylan, no! You’re bringing logic into this!

    Abort! Abort! Abort!

  82. By Danny on Feb 28, 2010

    First, stop noting Ryan Howard’s RBI averages. Just stop it. RBI production has a lot to do with the entire lineup, and anyone in the cleanup spot in the Phillies’ current lineup would put up monster RBI totals.

    For anybody that notes how Howard is “feared” or “ultra-competitive” or any of that garbage, just quit it. People who say that just don’t have a sound argument, so that serves as a fallback option.

    “He wants the game on his shoulder?” Give me a break. So does Greg Dobbs.

    “He is making strides to improve his overall game, and he is a competitor.” So is Ben Francisco.

    Numbers are what tells the story, not these awful intangibles arguments. And what I see in numbers is a below-average defensive first baseman with massive power and average ability to get on base. All in all, he’s a slightly above average player. Definitely not worth $20MM/yr, and definitely not worth that down the road once he hits 32 or 33 years old.

    If the Phillies are able to find equal value as far as prospects/MLB-ready players from another team, you have to strongly consider moving him.

    Personally, I think Utley should stay at second since he plays the best defense at that position in the majors. Just go to fieldingbible.com to see those statistics.

    Utley is by far the best player on this team, not Howard…regardless of what you may think. That’s just a fact of life.

  83. By Danny on Feb 28, 2010

    I realize you all want Ryan Howard to play for the Phillies through 2078 for $3MM/yr, but a) he wants a lot of money, and b) he eventually will die.

    I think the city is just so attached to the guy….people can’t comprehend his leaving.

    And to think, good ol’ Ed Wade almost traded Howard to LA for Andy LaRoche. That would have gone over well…right?

  84. By Phillies on Feb 28, 2010

    Trading howard to la for larache would have been disaterous even tho i never heard that rumor although laroche would have less k’s than howard.

  85. By derekcarstairs on Feb 28, 2010

    The issue of what to do about Howard is a real issue that requires a real solution to be implemented sometime between the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2012. To speak in theoretical terms like “finding equal value” is not a solution.

    So, all of you in favor of letting Howard go, step up to the plate and propose a specific solution and name some names. Answer these questions:
    1. Will you trade Howard after 2010 or let him become a free agent after 2011?
    2. If you trade Howard, which teams are potential trade partners and what potential packages are available in return? It’s a much tougher problem to speak about specific players than it is to talk about players of X value or equal to Y WAR. Once you start naming names in specific transactions then we can evaluate more clearly the merits of your solutions.
    3. If you let Howard become a free agent after 2011, how will you replace him and how much money will you spend? If you will sign other free agents, which ones; who will you be bidding against; and how much will you offer to each free agent. Take a look at the potential free agent list, and identify your targets.
    4. Once you have completed your series of transactions after 2010 or 2011, what is resulting your new lineup and/or your resulting five-man rotation in 2011 or 2012?

    Finally, after you have competed your transactions, will the Phils remain an elite team (i.e., a top three team)? If the answer is “no, but they will remain competitive”, then your solution falls short.

  86. By Tommy Bunz on Mar 1, 2010

    My thoughts and what I believe will happen in the future:

    1. Chase Utley is staying at second.
    2. Phillies are going to resign Werth, 3 years, $45 million, with an option for a 4th year. I don’t think he’ll get more than that on the open market, although he probably should. Amaro is under strict “win now orders” and will keep Jayson who is quite clearly our best outfielder. Amaro will try very hard to move Ibanez on his final year of his contract in 2011. This will most likely be a giveaway like Abreu was to the Yankees in 2006. If he can’t move Raul then Dom Brown will just have to wait til 2012 for his debut. The Phillies have a history of being slow to progress top prospects to the majors (Utley & Howard, etc.).
    3. Phillies try to negotiate with Howard on an extension but let him walk when his agents/family keep pushing for a landmark deal (his family thinks he’s in line for ARod money). Howard gets a bit of shock when he gets less attention in free agency than either Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder and ends up signing a long-term deal for less annually than he is making right now ($20 mil). Either with us or the San Francisco Giants.

  87. By Jack F on Mar 1, 2010

    Dang, a lot of comments, but I didn’t see one about this idea: The problem is that you want to move Utley off 2nd. He’s too valuable to risk there and Polanco is a MUCH better player at 2nd. So switch them. Don’t worry about Howard. If anyone can handle a move to 3rd, it’s Utley. And he has the bat to justify. I think this configuration will give max WAR but it’s up to you to run the numbers. Check it out.

  88. By Cutter on Mar 1, 2010

    This is ridiculous on so many levels. I realize that part of this scenario looks to the future, but you don’t trade away the best power hitter in baseball when you’ve got a core capable of winning the World Series.

    And can we see Werth play more than one season as a full time regular before dismantling the team for him?

  89. By tcbphd on Mar 1, 2010

    It’s nice to know that your team would be willing to consider bold actions–like trading Howard. What I think makes this such a golden era for the Phillies is the combination of reasonable, evidence-based decision-making AND the ability to put a team together that has good chemistry.

    There’s a lot of debate about “clutch” and a general discounting of “chemistry” in SABResque discussions. But I think that intangibles make a difference. You can’t assign a WAR for “able to shake off a bad loss” or “feels good coming to the park early.” Or maybe you can . . . take the mean number of players per cab after a road loss . . .

  90. By phatti on Mar 1, 2010

    @Danny
    If you want to make the argument that Howard is overrated, or RBI totals don’t matter that much, fine, I might support you on that. But you’re way overshooting your mark calling him “slightly above average.”

    Howard has the #6 OPS of all active players, and most of the people in the top ten are a lot older than he.

    His WAR was #27 last year. By WAR, Howard was worth 21 million last year, and has been worth an average of $20 mil per full season throughout his career.

    Howard is a very good player. Overrated maybe, but still very good, and he has been a big part of the Phillies’ success.

  91. By Jon on Mar 1, 2010

    I just wanted to write that I got a big chuckle out of an article that estimates positive “Wins Above Replacement” for a replacement 3B and replacement RF. Maybe it’s realistic as a projection, but semantically it’s a disaster.

    I think it’s likely these personnel decisions will be made by the market for Ryan Howard and his demands, who remains productive and wants to stay in Philadelphia, what players the Phillies developed, etc. If there’s one thing that’s made clear by this article and the comments, it’s that the benefits to the Phillies are not clear-cut either way, so their decision point should remain sensitive to contingencies as they arise.

  92. By Mike Savino on Mar 2, 2010

    @ Phatti

    Doesn’t that make Ryan Howard very likely to be overpaid within the next few years? Since he’s pretty much getting paid what he’s worth now and he’ll either get a raise or decline? Lets be honest here, Phillies fans…you can’t expect Howard to get much better.

    Just curious, people. I’m a Padres fan living in Philly. Just for the record. But as the Phillies are rapidly becoming my second team…don’t you want to build for future success? Nobody liked the Cliff Lee trade, huh. I think it makes sense for the Phillies to let some other team take the enormous risk of Ryan Howard aging badly. And the risk of the $20+ mm its going to cost. And the risk of the prospects blossoming for the Phillies.

    Doesn’t that make sense? Howards value will likely NEVER be higher than it is now and if you’re Ruben Amaro…who the hell wants to be the guy releasing Ryan Howard five years into a 7 year contract? Or explaining in your next interview how “Howard had intangibles” and that’s why you signed him to an albatross contract that screwed your organization? And that’s why your doing an interview because the Phillies fired you for allowing this collection of all-stars to turn into a terrible, last place team because they all got old and injured and looked like the 2009 Mets.

    And Domonic Brown is a prospect. Jayson Werth had an amazing season last year and will most likely be harder to replace than a power-hitting first baseman. Really, though, you cannot, simply cannot, expect a guy with a career .430 slugging in the minors to produce on the same level as a 36 home run stud. Not saying you should expect 36 homers from Werth himself ever again. But you get the point–Domonic Brown “replacing” Jayson Werth is far from a sure thing. Domonic Brown becoming an every day major league hitter is far from a sure thing–ignoring Werth’s 128 OPS+ last season ignoring defense. See?

    No, yelling guy, Jayson Werth is not as good as RyHo (what a clever nickname! it took me a second but I just figured out that its the first two letters of his first and last name). Jayson Werth was a top five outfielder last year, though, and has some track record to back it up. Ryan Howard is a top five first baseman–but he’s getting paid a lot of money, is due for another raise and if you’re looking for a slugging first baseman type…well, Jermaine Dye’s out of a job. Carlos Delgado (yes, he’s hurt, I know) was pretty solid for the past few years. Frank Thomas had to retire despite averaging 32 homers for the previous two seasons. You can find power at first base and it certainly doesn’t have to cost $20 mm.

    That’s not so hard, right? Why is this even an angry discussion? The first handful of comments were right in line–yeah, trading Howard kind of makes sense but moving Utley really doesn’t. Then what? He’s clutch? You want him up in the bottom of the ninth? I thought we were done with all that…does that even make sense? If a guy really behaved differently in different game situations, would he be a good enough hitter to make it in the majors? If a guy was really clutch, like he could get a game winning hit more often than just a regular hit, wouldn’t he do that every time? I mean, that’s not even the mathematical point that has been proven over and over and over again. Clutch hitting doesn’t exist or else its so minuscule that hitters can’t demonstrate the ability to repeat clutch hitting year to year.

    But you know what? I’m still a Padres fan. So by all means, scream at Ruben Amaro to keep Ryan Howard for the next ten years. That means the market for AdGo has one less supplier in it…(get it? AdGo? Adrian Gonzalez? No? Meh, eff it.)

  93. By schmenkman on Mar 3, 2010

    Mike, I hate to admit it, but you’re right on. And I’m with you on clutch hitting, but since we are already starting to talk about the possible departure of RyHo, I will throw out this tidbit as a reminder of how good he has been: Howard gets a lot of opportunities to drive in runs and some people discount his stats somewhat for that, but over the past 3 years, no one in baseball has driven a higher PERCENTAGE of the runners they are presented than Ryan Howard:

    % of runners on base driven in, 2007-2009 (out of 188 with 750+ PAs):
    1. Ryan Howard 19.1%
    2. Victor Martinez 19.0%
    3. Aramis Ramirez 18.9%
    4. Matt Holliday 18.8%
    5. Joe Mauer 18.4%

    And as I’ve mentioned elsewhere, Howard has not been helped by CBP. CBP is one of the more fair parks in MLB, consistently boosting scoring by only 3% for the past 3 years (ranking 14th, 15th, and 13th), and while Howard has a slightly higher OPS at home, he has more HRs and RBIs on the road.

  94. By Mike Savino on Mar 5, 2010

    Fair enough schmenkman…

    And while there probably is some value to that table…examine it again. Its populated by the best hitters in baseball (although, where’s Pujols?). I’m not saying Ryan Howard is a bad hitter. But wouldn’t you expect any good hitter to have a high %of runners on base driven in? Especially a guy like Howard. Because he’s got a lot of power.

    I’m not discounting Howard’s value as a player. I’m saying that production is being matched by what he is being paid and very likely will be exceeded by his pay. I’m also saying it will be much easier for the Phillies to acquire a decent first baseman than a decent right fielder. And I’m saying Jayson Werth has had what looks to me like an underrated, underappreciated career.

    Don’t get me wrong, Howard is an MVP candidate every year. You also have to consider his aging. And, as I said before, I’m a Padres fan so I always have one eye towards losing the player in free agency. And, no, I don’t think the park has inflated his value. Obviously, its not that different from average, as you pointed out.

    And one other thing–I don’t see the fascination with the draft picks the teams pick up after a free agent leaves. How many of those supplemental picks turn into future stars? Really, I think its a whole lot better for the franchise to get one or two players with a minor league track record. At least they know what they’re getting then. So, yeah, it makes more sense for the Phillies to move Howard and get prospects instead of letting him walk and getting draft picks. I think.

  95. By Ej on Mar 14, 2010

    All I have to say about trading Howard is one word…Retarded. To even think of such a thing to trade a guys that gives you 45 hrs and 140 rbis is just a flat out idiotic thing to do especially when this team is made to run for the next 2 to 3 years. Werth has had 1 good year so far..thats it. Corner infielders that hit 270 and give you 100 rbis grow on trees..especially when you put them in this lineup. NO WAY!!!!

  96. By Bill Baer on Mar 14, 2010

    Ej,

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1327&position=OF#value

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2154&position=1B#value

  97. By Tom on Mar 22, 2010

    I don’t agree with this at all. I like Jayson Werth, but he is no where near as good a hitter as Ryan Howard. I would just let Werth walk and have Brown playing RF. Ryan is an icon and needs to be in Philly for life. Another idea, just pony up the money and resign Werth without giving up anything but money.

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