Basically, if a hitter can lay off of Hamels’ changeup that is out of the zone early in the count (1st or 2nd pitch) he really has a good shot against Haemls because he likely will see a 4-seem fastball in the zone.

If you think about it, it is pretty amazing that Hamels has had such success at the MLB level so far as a starter while only throwing 2 pitchers (4-seem fastball and changeup). Demonstrates just how damn good his changeup is although if he doesn’t develop a 3rd solid pitch, he likely has maxed out as a starter.

Personally, I would love to see Hamels be able to master that 2-seem fastball a bit more or even pick up the cutter that Halladay has really mastered and become an important part of his pitching arsenal.

- He struggled a bit more vs. right-handed batters last year across the board.

- Hamels has always been a guy that dominates hitters if he gets 2 strikes on a hitter and last year was no exception although he wasn’t quite as dominate as previous years.

- Where Hamels notably struggled last year when when he faced a hitter for the 3rd time in a game and he when ran a deeper count especially on counts with 3 balls. It seemed Hamels had troubling finishing guys off last year a bit more and the numbers bare that a bit.

- Hamels got notably poorer results with his 4-seem fastball and curveball last year according to Fan Graphs pitch value numbers. His changeup also wasn’t quite as dominant.

- Hamels was a bit unlucky with RISP. That likely will even out a bit more this year and work a bit more in his favor.

My bet is that hitters have made some adjustments to Hamels based upon scouting reports and know that if they can get ahead in the count they are really like to see his 4-seem fastball. They can sit on it a bit more and drive it.

His curveball also remains a real work in progress and I remember several times last year where it hung and got blasted out of the park. Still a pitch that isn’t he throws all that much or apparently has much confidence in either.

Hamels apparently did start to work in a bit more of a 2-seem fastball too last year. It is going to be very interesting in the early going to see what Hamels throws because it always takes several starts before Hamels’ velocity runs to the low 90s. Does he use an inordinate amount of changeups or does he mix in more curveballs/2-seem fastball until his 4-seem fastball has a bit more giddy up in May.

Cole’s peripheal numbers for the entire year were the same but his numbers in the 1st half vs. 2nd half were night and day. Although his K/9 numbers were similar and his BB/9 was actually a bit better in the lst half, all of his other numbers really were notably worse in the 1st half (ERA, WHIP, H/9, BAA, BABIP, %LD).

Hamels was still a bit injured and not in shape as the season began. Went on to have a horrendous April 2009 (easily the worst month of his young career so far) and it took him a while to round back into shape.
Hamels actually found his groove back by May and pitched generally better through out the year except some struggles in August and his really poor postseason.

One of the more interesting things to note too was that some trends that have been persistent in his career so far (pitches better at CBP than on the road, pitches notably better during night vs. day starts) became even more magnified and stark last year.

He was poor on the road and if Hamels started a day game last year it was a good possibility the Phils were going to lose.

Mike, that’s true but that’s a small slice of his balls in play, and everything else remained constant. His LD%/GB%/FB% didn’t change much at all (not even close to being statistically significant). I think that if he was being hit harder, we would see a significant change in batted ball splits. Even his infield fly ball percentage stayed constant.

http://crashburnalley.com/2009/09/08/cole-why/