Comments on: Who’s #5? http://crashburnalley.com/2010/02/01/whos-5/ Philadelphia Phillies baseball analysis that everyone can enjoy. Wed, 23 May 2012 02:29:22 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Art D. http://crashburnalley.com/2010/02/01/whos-5/comment-page-1/#comment-15624 Art D. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 05:29:58 +0000 http://crashburnalley.com/?p=686#comment-15624 Should Kendrick start and do well, why trade him? He SHOULD then be kept as a decent or better starter at a cheap price. Should Kendrick start and do well, why trade him? He SHOULD then be kept as a decent or better starter at a cheap price.

]]> By: Bill Baer http://crashburnalley.com/2010/02/01/whos-5/comment-page-1/#comment-15603 Bill Baer Wed, 03 Feb 2010 17:40:13 +0000 http://crashburnalley.com/?p=686#comment-15603 orly orly

]]> By: rbt http://crashburnalley.com/2010/02/01/whos-5/comment-page-1/#comment-15602 rbt Wed, 03 Feb 2010 17:38:13 +0000 http://crashburnalley.com/?p=686#comment-15602 I suspect that Stephenie LaGrossa may be a bit biased regarding her husband's stuff. I'd be more inclined to believe if the information came from a somewhat more reliable source. I suspect that Stephenie LaGrossa may be a bit biased regarding her husband’s stuff. I’d be more inclined to believe if the information came from a somewhat more reliable source.

]]> By: GM-Carson http://crashburnalley.com/2010/02/01/whos-5/comment-page-1/#comment-15595 GM-Carson Wed, 03 Feb 2010 12:00:44 +0000 http://crashburnalley.com/?p=686#comment-15595 I'm pulling for KK as well. Grand Pappy Moyer will always hold a place in my heart for what he's done while in Phillies pinstripes, but it's tiem to test Kendrick's new pitching arsenal out and see what the outcome is. I’m pulling for KK as well. Grand Pappy Moyer will always hold a place in my heart for what he’s done while in Phillies pinstripes, but it’s tiem to test Kendrick’s new pitching arsenal out and see what the outcome is.

]]> By: Bill Baer http://crashburnalley.com/2010/02/01/whos-5/comment-page-1/#comment-15575 Bill Baer Tue, 02 Feb 2010 22:59:15 +0000 http://crashburnalley.com/?p=686#comment-15575 Actually, now that I think about it, Shane Victorino could be trade bait. Not sure if the organization looks at him that way, though. Actually, now that I think about it, Shane Victorino could be trade bait. Not sure if the organization looks at him that way, though.

]]> By: Bill Baer http://crashburnalley.com/2010/02/01/whos-5/comment-page-1/#comment-15570 Bill Baer Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:19:49 +0000 http://crashburnalley.com/?p=686#comment-15570 Who would the Phillies trade if they needed a position player? Let's say Jimmy Rollins gets injured. Amaro certainly isn't going to let Castro play every day -- at least I would hope not. At this point, Ibanez isn't much trade bait given his salary. Despite impending free agency, Werth wouldn't be shipped in the middle of a pennant race. The Phillies' only trading chips are Kendrick (if he pitches well) and prospects. And I doubt Amaro would go out and trade Aumont et. al. after flat out refusing to keep Cliff Lee at that price. The Phillies won't be creating a new need by trading him because they have a surplus of starting pitchers. With Kendrick gone, they still would have to choose between Moyer and Contreras. Next year, they could choose between Aumont (if they legitimately view him as a starter), Savery, Bastardo, etc. Or they could sign someone on the cheap in the free agent market. Who would the Phillies trade if they needed a position player? Let’s say Jimmy Rollins gets injured. Amaro certainly isn’t going to let Castro play every day — at least I would hope not. At this point, Ibanez isn’t much trade bait given his salary. Despite impending free agency, Werth wouldn’t be shipped in the middle of a pennant race.

The Phillies’ only trading chips are Kendrick (if he pitches well) and prospects. And I doubt Amaro would go out and trade Aumont et. al. after flat out refusing to keep Cliff Lee at that price.

The Phillies won’t be creating a new need by trading him because they have a surplus of starting pitchers. With Kendrick gone, they still would have to choose between Moyer and Contreras. Next year, they could choose between Aumont (if they legitimately view him as a starter), Savery, Bastardo, etc. Or they could sign someone on the cheap in the free agent market.

]]> By: taco pal http://crashburnalley.com/2010/02/01/whos-5/comment-page-1/#comment-15562 taco pal Tue, 02 Feb 2010 15:35:20 +0000 http://crashburnalley.com/?p=686#comment-15562 Also, I'm not sure I see the logic of solving a tight budgetary situation by looking to trade away the cheapest of our three options. Yes, Kendrick will have trade value if he pitches well. But if he pitches well, will we still want to trade him? And yes, conceivably fill a need by trading him if he pitches well. But if he pitches well, won't we just be creating a new need for ourselves by trading him away? It seems to me that the Phillies should just go into spring training with an open mind and give the job to whoever pitches the best. I don't think any further analysis is necessary. Also, I’m not sure I see the logic of solving a tight budgetary situation by looking to trade away the cheapest of our three options. Yes, Kendrick will have trade value if he pitches well. But if he pitches well, will we still want to trade him? And yes, conceivably fill a need by trading him if he pitches well. But if he pitches well, won’t we just be creating a new need for ourselves by trading him away?

It seems to me that the Phillies should just go into spring training with an open mind and give the job to whoever pitches the best. I don’t think any further analysis is necessary.

]]> By: taco pal http://crashburnalley.com/2010/02/01/whos-5/comment-page-1/#comment-15561 taco pal Tue, 02 Feb 2010 15:29:10 +0000 http://crashburnalley.com/?p=686#comment-15561 While I don't doubt that Stephenie LaGrossa's analysis is flawed on some level, I don't think the fact that Kendrick has thrown a small percentage of changeups thus far in his major league career disproves that he has a changeup *now*, given that nearly all of his major league stats were accumulated in 2007 and 2008. LaGrossa said that Kendrick "only <i>had</i> two pitches" (emphasis mine); that is consistent with the data cited. What would disprove that point is if Kendrick threw a low percentage of change-ups in 2009 in AAA. But Fangraphs does not have pitch type data for the minor leagues. It is worth noting, though, that in the small sample of Kendrick's major league starts in 2009, 16.2% of his pitches were changeups, more than double his previous percentage. While I don’t doubt that Stephenie LaGrossa’s analysis is flawed on some level, I don’t think the fact that Kendrick has thrown a small percentage of changeups thus far in his major league career disproves that he has a changeup *now*, given that nearly all of his major league stats were accumulated in 2007 and 2008. LaGrossa said that Kendrick “only had two pitches” (emphasis mine); that is consistent with the data cited. What would disprove that point is if Kendrick threw a low percentage of change-ups in 2009 in AAA. But Fangraphs does not have pitch type data for the minor leagues. It is worth noting, though, that in the small sample of Kendrick’s major league starts in 2009, 16.2% of his pitches were changeups, more than double his previous percentage.

]]> By: Aaron H http://crashburnalley.com/2010/02/01/whos-5/comment-page-1/#comment-15536 Aaron H Tue, 02 Feb 2010 02:37:10 +0000 http://crashburnalley.com/?p=686#comment-15536 I think the question with Kendrick is whether we'll see '07 Kendrick (or even '09 Kendrick) vs. '08 Kendrick. The difference between the two at first glance: '07: K/BB ratio-1.96 DP%-21% (!) '08: K/BB ratio-1.19 DP%-6% So at first glance, it looks like he'll need to keep his walk total down (the K/9 was pretty similar) and hopefully get more DP balls (anyone know what the league average is?) But what's scary for him (and for a certain other young, lanky starter) is that in 2007, his RISP BAA was .207 (BABIP .216). In 2008, it was .281 (BABIP .282). So I think he benefited from a good deal of luck in '07 with RISP, something that I doubt he'll be able to duplicate in 2010, making me nervous about our 4th starter too. I think the question with Kendrick is whether we’ll see ’07 Kendrick (or even ’09 Kendrick) vs. ’08 Kendrick. The difference between the two at first glance:

’07:
K/BB ratio-1.96
DP%-21% (!)

’08:
K/BB ratio-1.19
DP%-6%

So at first glance, it looks like he’ll need to keep his walk total down (the K/9 was pretty similar) and hopefully get more DP balls (anyone know what the league average is?)

But what’s scary for him (and for a certain other young, lanky starter) is that in 2007, his RISP BAA was .207 (BABIP .216). In 2008, it was .281 (BABIP .282). So I think he benefited from a good deal of luck in ’07 with RISP, something that I doubt he’ll be able to duplicate in 2010, making me nervous about our 4th starter too.

]]> By: ShooterB http://crashburnalley.com/2010/02/01/whos-5/comment-page-1/#comment-15531 ShooterB Mon, 01 Feb 2010 22:46:48 +0000 http://crashburnalley.com/?p=686#comment-15531 Don't worry, Moyer should recover well and be back to throwing 60 MPH heaters in no time. Don’t worry, Moyer should recover well and be back to throwing 60 MPH heaters in no time.

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