BDD: What PECOTA Says
At Baseball Daily Digest, I explain the aim of PECOTA:
Angels fans are irate that PECOTA predicts the team to win a mere 76 games. If we go to two standard deviations, between which data falls 95% of the time, the win range spans from 64-88.
“Great,” you say. “Even I could predict the Angels to win between 64-88 games.”
It seems trivial, but that is because people are expecting PECOTA to make grand claims when it’s really not going to do that. If you’re expecting PECOTA to mimic Nostradamus, you are always going to close your Internet browser disappointed.