BDD: A Not So Happ-y 2010

At Baseball Daily Digest, I detail why you should not expect J.A. Happ to be the pitcher we saw last year. This is the article I was talking about in my response to David Murphy.

As you can see, ERA estimators very much disagree with Happ’s 2009 ERA. Even the most optimistic estimator only puts Happ at 4.33, which is in the same neighborhood as Nick Blackburn, Mike Pelfrey, and Livan Hernandez. That is not to say that a 4.33 FIP is awful, it just means that Happ’s success last year does not match up with factors we know fall under a pitcher’s direct control.