Sometimes. Other times, it is just a hunch. But Rosenthal nailed it.

This brings me back to my original point. If Boston and NYY are just feigning interest, the Phils and the Angels are the two remaining competitors for Halladay. If AA tries to wait out the market, the Angels may very well decide that a deal is impossible and move to resign Lackey. If that happens, the Phils would be the only serious candidate for a trade remaining, putting AA in a much more precarious position.

There’s a lot of “if”s and “probably”s here, but I just mean to highlight the dangers of waiting out the market when the market isn’t all that big to begin with. If the Yanks and Sox are just feigning interest to keep the other team on its toes (or if AA is feigning interest in the Sox and Yanks to drive up the market), and if the Angels decide that Toronto is being too coy and goes to Lackey, instead, AA would suddenly find himself with no real choices except the Phillies. If I were AA, I’d want a deal done by Christmas.

I agree, getting equal value is incredibly tricky, especially in sports, where it’s never certain what the value of the traded players will turn out to be (as you’ve mentioned, the Santana trade is a good example).

Obviously, AA just has to pick the best package available. I’m sure he has an idea of what that will be. He’s said that he will execute on any deal that he likes. Referring to the example above, he believes that “an offer from a better team is waiting”. Once he’s exhausted these, and there doesn’t seem to be a better deal on the table, then he can make a choice: whether to trade Halladay for what was offered or keep him from one more year. Unless another team comes in at the last moment that the Jays really like, which is the sort of deal they were looking for, and then they make that deal–the other teams know this too, and that’s why the Jays have leverage.

Feel free to debate as often as you want. I’ve tried to cultivate an environment here where all opinions can be heard. We may see baseball in different ways (and we would probably agree on 95% of topics), but it is interesting to discuss and debate our views.

There’s nothing wrong with disagreeing with me. I have the capacity to be wrong, to miss certain details, and/or to be influenced by various biases.

You don’t have to “agree to disagree” until you run out of things to say.

In your response to Matthew’s comments above, you wrote the following:

Last year was the first season since 2004 in which they won fewer than 80 games. Their Pythagorean record was 84-78. They can certainly be competitive in the AL East even without Halladay.

One thing that has been absent from the conversation is the value of retaining Halladay in an attempt to compete and draw fans in 2010. With a Pythag record of 84 wins, the addition by subtraction of Rios going to Chicago, the expected improvement from young starters like Rzepczynski and Cecil and the return of Marcum, maybe the Jays could compete for a playoff spot next year with Halladay in the rotation. It would also be interesting to know how the Jays have fared at the box office when Halladay has pitched vs. when others have been on the mound. If Halladay starts equate to more attendance, keeping him around may pay a significant portion of his contract.

I appreciate your views, your blog in general and the work that you do to bring good Phillies-centric content to your readers. With that (and everything else I’ve written) said, I think we’ll probably have to agree to disagree on this one and continue to share the hope that Doc is a Phillie by April or July at the latest.

The comparison should be viewed from the perspective of the team trading away the star, not the one trading for him. In other words, the Mets had a weak farm system; therefore, getting their #2, 3, 4 and 7 prospects was not a good haul for the Twins, even though they traded Santana with 162 games to be played. Contrarily, the Brewers had a good farm system (LaPorta, Parra, Escobar, Gamel); therefore, the Indians got a better package for CC, even though they traded him with less than 1/2 the season remaining.

Point taken on the Rays and being in the same division as the Jays. However, I don’t think the potential 2 month rental market for Doc will be limited to the Rays. Any number of small and mid-sized budget teams that currently cannot consider paying him $16M for the entire season could potentially be players for him if they are contenders at the deadline. One example to consider, going back to 2008, is that the Brewers were never considered players for Santana at the beginning of the season. However, when they found themselves in the race in July, they were willing to give up prospects to (a) rent Sabathia for 3 months and (b) receive the draft pick compensation. Another example of this is that the smallest of small budget teams, the Marlins, were in the Manny Ramirez trade negotiations at the deadline in 2008.

It’s also relative as not all top-ten prospects are worth the same. That was a lot for the Mets to give up given their weak (or at the time, mediocre) Minor League system. Donald, Carrasco, and Marson was a very easy package for the Phillies to relinquish because that did not represent most of the wealth of their Minor League system.

You make a good case for the Rays making a mid-season push for Halladay. However, I just can’t see the Jays trading him within the division though — that would be terrible P.R., probably on the same level as not trading him at all. Certainly not something a new GM wants to do to acquaint himself with the Toronto fan base.