The Interwebs are abuzz with Roy Halladay rumors, hints, whispers, and sweet nothings. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has been eager to dismiss each and every suggestion of a possible trade. Twitter has been there to get us excited again. Like a squirrel searching for an acorn, we are clicking our way through to the other end of the Internet to find the truth to the Halladay saga.
That’s why I’ve created a nice visual to help guide you on your quest through the Internet forest. This graph will show you the likelihood of a Halladay trade to Philadelphia according to various sources. If it appears to be of low quality, click it and it will open up in a new window at 100% quality.
- Twitter: According to Twitterers, the deal is done. The only thing between Roy Halladay and Philadelphia is a physical. Don’t worry, though: Roy trains in the off-season with Chuck Norris so you know he’s in tip-top shape.
- National Writers: The national sportswriters are pretty darn optimistic. To quote Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, “Already the two-time league champion, the Phillies, given their aggressiveness and stockpile of young talent, are emerging as the favorite to land Toronto ace Roy Halladay.” Many other national writers, as you will see in the links below, also put the Phillies in the lead.
- Beat writers: Former Phillies beat writer Todd Zolecki, why must you give us a painful cold shower? Todd Tweeted, “maybe a 35 percent chance of getting [Halladay]. Definitely not 75 percent.” Come on man, let us dream!
- Reality: The Phillies are imposing a $140 million limit on the payroll. According to Cot’s Contracts, they’re already at $116 million with a couple bullpen spots to fill and some arbitration cases to settle (Joe Blanton and Shane Victorino namely). The Toronto Blue Jays are still going to want some return value to make the trade worthwhile, so the Phillies will have to part with J.A. Happ, at least one of Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor, and one or two lower-tier prospects. Furthermore, the Phillies will likely have to move Blanton (or Victorino) to have space on the payroll for Halladay. While it’s true that the Phillies are probably the favorites, it’s still possible that the Los Angeles Angels add on to their already existing offer of Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, and prospect Peter Bourjos.
- Ruben Amaro: Per Zolecki, the Phillies’ GM quipped, “I don’t think there’s any likeliness” that the team acquires Halladay from Toronto. “There’s nothing likely. How about that?” In other words, expect Halladay to don Phillies pinstripes in spring training.
More links to Roy Halladay rumors than you can possibly stand: