My apologies. I made an assumption based on your statement, “Figgins is probably more than a 3.1 win player, but not that much.”

I figured you meant 3-3.5 WAR as opposed to a more generous assessment.

Matt Swartz performed a study on the draft at Baseball Prospectus. He found:

In total, 51% of first and second rounds picks make the majors.

The other thing that is clear is that fewer and fewer first round draft picks ever end up making the major leagues.

He also found that off draft picks between 1 and 40 overall, the 26-30 bucket (which the Phillies have) is the worst.

Additionally, Victor Wang also performed a study on the draft at The Hardball Times.

I feel that the most reasonable projection for the value of Type A draft picks would be something between $3-5 million.

Obviously, since the Phillies have a pick at the back end of the first round, it’s much closer to $3 million than $5 million.

For a team like the Phillies, who are clearly in win-now mode, sacrificing a draft pick — a player that has a 50% shot at making the Majors and a much lower probability of making any kind of positive contribution (especially in the Phillies’ slot) — is a very minuscule sacrifice for an addition that helps the team move closer to another championship.

Out of those seven picks, Utley and Hamels brings a combined WAR of 10 or so, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Drabek would add 3 WAR himself down the road (slightly worse pitcher than Cole). That’s an average of more than 2 WAR per first round pick. Even if we halve that, to account for less future value than present value, we still have Polanco (call it 2.5 WAR each year over the course of the contract), plus 1st round pick X, with 1 WAR, against Figgins and his (perhaps optimistic) 5 WAR. When you look at the rough numbers like that and factor in the saved draft pick, I don’t think the gap between Figgins and Polanco’s values is all that glaring.

The negative about Figgins and his value – although it is irrelevant to the Figgins vs. Polanco for the Phillies argument – is that he may not play 3B for the Mariners next year if Adrian Beltre accepts arbitration, which is what I think will happen. In that case, Figgins will play 2B (with Jose Lopez moving to 1B or out of Seattle via trade), LF or be used in a Tony Phillips-like way, starting everyday at a different position. In any case except Figgins at 3B, he loses value because 3B is the only position at which he has a positive UZR/150. Granted, 3B is also the position where he’s played by far the most games in his career and his defense at 2B or in the OF might improve with more innings there. Again, this is irrelevant to the issue of whether the Phillies should have signed him because he would have played 3B here.

2) Players can’t improve? Like I said, none of Figgins’ success in 2009 was due to abnormal luck or flash-in-the-pan success. He’s got incredible plate discipline, has a naturally high BABIP, and plays superb defense.

You can’t just point to age and say that a player is going to be bad. There is no evidence that Figgins is as bad as you’re making him seem.

1) He’s 32 years old. It’s not necessary to point to trends, players in their 30′s generally get worse.
2) He’s averaged being a 3-win player for the past 6 years. And a 6-year sample size is only a WHEE bit more reliable than 1 year.

- Figgins’ walk rate has increased every season since he came into the Majors
- He has a naturally high BABIP; 2007 was the only season in which he benefited from an unnaturally high BABIP
- The curve ball was the only pitch he significantly struggled against last season
- Related to his walk rate, he has fantastic plate discipline: he swung at 10% fewer pitches outside the strike zone than the league average, yet made contact with about 5% more pitches inside the strike zone and 7.5% outside

It’s absolutely warranted to regress Figgins’ production last season. I completely understand he won’t be a 7-win player next season. However, to say he’ll only be a 3-win player is based on what trends? There is no evidence that he is getting worse.

From what I understand, Figgins’ contract is also front-loaded which makes it even better, although I don’t think the Phillies could have afforded to have paid $12 million for his 2009 season. I believe the Mariners will only be paying $6 million for the fourth year of the deal. Plus, Figgins will be 35 when the contract ends; Polanco will be 35 at the end of the first year of his contract.