<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: Phillies Sign Placido Polanco</title>
	<atom:link href="http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/</link>
	<description>Philadelphia Phillies baseball analysis that everyone can enjoy.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 16:58:37 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1</generator>
	<item>
		<title>By: BS</title>
		<link>http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/comment-page-1/#comment-14345</link>
		<dc:creator>BS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Dec 2009 01:16:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crashburnalley.com/?p=599#comment-14345</guid>
		<description>With the news that Beltre&#039;s looking for no less than $10M/yr and even DeRosa&#039;s looking for 3/$27, I think Polanco&#039;s $6/yr seems much more reasonable. I&#039;d much rather have Polanco at $6/yr versus Derosa at his demands, or Beltre at $10+/yr.

Also, 2B is supposedly a higher difficulty position vs. 3B. I don&#039;t have any concerns about Polanco&#039;s range or agility at the hot corner, although we are trading off some arm strength.

On a separate note, I wonder how much of a push we could&#039;ve made for Chone Figgins who surprsingly seems to be about to sign a 4/$36 deal with Seattle, which is pretty darn reasonable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the news that Beltre&#8217;s looking for no less than $10M/yr and even DeRosa&#8217;s looking for 3/$27, I think Polanco&#8217;s $6/yr seems much more reasonable. I&#8217;d much rather have Polanco at $6/yr versus Derosa at his demands, or Beltre at $10+/yr.</p>
<p>Also, 2B is supposedly a higher difficulty position vs. 3B. I don&#8217;t have any concerns about Polanco&#8217;s range or agility at the hot corner, although we are trading off some arm strength.</p>
<p>On a separate note, I wonder how much of a push we could&#8217;ve made for Chone Figgins who surprsingly seems to be about to sign a 4/$36 deal with Seattle, which is pretty darn reasonable.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: hk</title>
		<link>http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/comment-page-1/#comment-14344</link>
		<dc:creator>hk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Dec 2009 01:08:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crashburnalley.com/?p=599#comment-14344</guid>
		<description>What&#039;s Ruben&#039;s rush to be first to sign guys at positions where supply seems to be &gt; demand?  It&#039;s Ibanez all over again.  I also didn&#039;t see the rush to sign Juan Castro and now I fear he&#039;s going to overpay for Brandon Lyon (in years and dollars) when Brandon Lyon&#039;s are practically falling off trees.  And, finally, to compound the set-up man mistake, he didn&#039;t offer arb to Chan Ho Park.  If Park accepted, one year of Park is much better than 2 or more of Lyon.  If Park signed elsewhere, we would have gotten draft choices.  Ruben still has a chance to fix the bullpen and salvage what has been a brutal offseason so far, but he has to exhibit some patience.

FWIW, Dave Cameron posted a good piece on Fan Graphs today in which he explained their $ values and in the comments section Tom Tango posted a link to another piece that helped explain the concept.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What&#8217;s Ruben&#8217;s rush to be first to sign guys at positions where supply seems to be &gt; demand?  It&#8217;s Ibanez all over again.  I also didn&#8217;t see the rush to sign Juan Castro and now I fear he&#8217;s going to overpay for Brandon Lyon (in years and dollars) when Brandon Lyon&#8217;s are practically falling off trees.  And, finally, to compound the set-up man mistake, he didn&#8217;t offer arb to Chan Ho Park.  If Park accepted, one year of Park is much better than 2 or more of Lyon.  If Park signed elsewhere, we would have gotten draft choices.  Ruben still has a chance to fix the bullpen and salvage what has been a brutal offseason so far, but he has to exhibit some patience.</p>
<p>FWIW, Dave Cameron posted a good piece on Fan Graphs today in which he explained their $ values and in the comments section Tom Tango posted a link to another piece that helped explain the concept.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Matt</title>
		<link>http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/comment-page-1/#comment-14322</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 05:04:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crashburnalley.com/?p=599#comment-14322</guid>
		<description>Bill, 
I agree entirely with your responses in the comments, i was merely pointing out that the Phillies only seemed to really focus in on Polanco once he was not offered arbitration, obviously showing that they set a high value on their first round pick this year (perhaps becuase they didnt have one last year).  but i agree i don&#039;t think it is a bad signing i just hoped they would do better.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bill,<br />
I agree entirely with your responses in the comments, i was merely pointing out that the Phillies only seemed to really focus in on Polanco once he was not offered arbitration, obviously showing that they set a high value on their first round pick this year (perhaps becuase they didnt have one last year).  but i agree i don&#8217;t think it is a bad signing i just hoped they would do better.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Bill Baer</title>
		<link>http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/comment-page-1/#comment-14320</link>
		<dc:creator>Bill Baer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:54:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crashburnalley.com/?p=599#comment-14320</guid>
		<description>That&#039;s certainly an important factor, but it&#039;s much less important for a team like the Phillies, clearly in win-now mode after reaching the World Series in consecutive years.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s certainly an important factor, but it&#8217;s much less important for a team like the Phillies, clearly in win-now mode after reaching the World Series in consecutive years.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: JRVJ</title>
		<link>http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/comment-page-1/#comment-14317</link>
		<dc:creator>JRVJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:39:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crashburnalley.com/?p=599#comment-14317</guid>
		<description>Well, it&#039;s been rumored that Beltre will take arbitration, which would take him out of the picture (the Phillies probably know this, too).

As to Figgins, I would have liked him a lot more if he hadn&#039;t been offered arbitration. 

Since he was offered arbitration, signing Polanco has a silver lining: the Phillies will not lose their 1st round pick in next year&#039;s draft.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, it&#8217;s been rumored that Beltre will take arbitration, which would take him out of the picture (the Phillies probably know this, too).</p>
<p>As to Figgins, I would have liked him a lot more if he hadn&#8217;t been offered arbitration. </p>
<p>Since he was offered arbitration, signing Polanco has a silver lining: the Phillies will not lose their 1st round pick in next year&#8217;s draft.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Bill Baer</title>
		<link>http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/comment-page-1/#comment-14315</link>
		<dc:creator>Bill Baer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:12:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crashburnalley.com/?p=599#comment-14315</guid>
		<description>I don’t think there’s any doubt that Polanco will be worth $18 million over the next three seasons, even if he is on a decline. However, the Phillies could have spent a little more to get more production at third base with a player that’s a better fit for the team.

The Phillies have contact guys that are suited for the #1, 2, or 7 spots in the lineup. What they needed was a right-handed third baseman with power potential and a decent glove. Adrian Beltre and Joe Crede are examples of such players (I’m not advocating that the Phillies should have been looking at Crede).

Chone Figgins doesn’t fit that role but if he takes the role Jimmy Rollins had (lead-off hitter with speed), that allows Rollins to move to the #7 spot and swing from the fences from both sides of the plate, something he does already (mistakenly, as a lead-off guy).

The Polanco signing isn’t a horrible move, I just think it’s ill-advised given that A) they jumped quickly; B) did not get the best guy out there; C) Polanco hadn’t regularly played third base since 2005; and D) could have gotten much more for slightly more money.

For instance, Figgins would have cost $8-12 million annually for four years (probably), and he’s younger and more versatile. &lt;a href=&quot;http://crashburnalley.com/?p=582&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Last month&lt;/a&gt;, I had Figgins at 7 WAR. Even if we regress him significantly, he’s still 5-6 WAR, or about twice as much as Polanco.

Beltre has a slightly higher ceiling, has more power, has been undervalued because he’s been hitting in a pitcher’s park, is younger, and has actually been playing at third base his entire career. He probably will be signed for ~$8-10 million annually for two or three years (similar to Polanco&#039;s contract, there may be an option for a fourth year).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don’t think there’s any doubt that Polanco will be worth $18 million over the next three seasons, even if he is on a decline. However, the Phillies could have spent a little more to get more production at third base with a player that’s a better fit for the team.</p>
<p>The Phillies have contact guys that are suited for the #1, 2, or 7 spots in the lineup. What they needed was a right-handed third baseman with power potential and a decent glove. Adrian Beltre and Joe Crede are examples of such players (I’m not advocating that the Phillies should have been looking at Crede).</p>
<p>Chone Figgins doesn’t fit that role but if he takes the role Jimmy Rollins had (lead-off hitter with speed), that allows Rollins to move to the #7 spot and swing from the fences from both sides of the plate, something he does already (mistakenly, as a lead-off guy).</p>
<p>The Polanco signing isn’t a horrible move, I just think it’s ill-advised given that A) they jumped quickly; B) did not get the best guy out there; C) Polanco hadn’t regularly played third base since 2005; and D) could have gotten much more for slightly more money.</p>
<p>For instance, Figgins would have cost $8-12 million annually for four years (probably), and he’s younger and more versatile. <a href="http://crashburnalley.com/?p=582" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Last month</a>, I had Figgins at 7 WAR. Even if we regress him significantly, he’s still 5-6 WAR, or about twice as much as Polanco.</p>
<p>Beltre has a slightly higher ceiling, has more power, has been undervalued because he’s been hitting in a pitcher’s park, is younger, and has actually been playing at third base his entire career. He probably will be signed for ~$8-10 million annually for two or three years (similar to Polanco&#8217;s contract, there may be an option for a fourth year).</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: JRVJ</title>
		<link>http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/comment-page-1/#comment-14314</link>
		<dc:creator>JRVJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 02:49:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crashburnalley.com/?p=599#comment-14314</guid>
		<description>Bill, I understand the concept of AAV.

I was getting at another point, however.  What I was trying to say is that the Phils may end up getting rather better than $6MM&#039;s worth of production in 2010 from Polanco, which should compensate for lesser production in 2011 and 2012.

I mentioned this because you referred to FanGraphs and how they scored Polanco&#039;s value in 2008 and 2009 - if you are going to use one line of reasoning (i.e., that Polanco was worth $14MM for each of 2008 and 2009 as per FanGraphs), you should use the same reasoning for Polanco&#039;s upcoming stint with the Phillies.

Using that rationale, I don&#039;t this is that bad a deal.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bill, I understand the concept of AAV.</p>
<p>I was getting at another point, however.  What I was trying to say is that the Phils may end up getting rather better than $6MM&#8217;s worth of production in 2010 from Polanco, which should compensate for lesser production in 2011 and 2012.</p>
<p>I mentioned this because you referred to FanGraphs and how they scored Polanco&#8217;s value in 2008 and 2009 &#8211; if you are going to use one line of reasoning (i.e., that Polanco was worth $14MM for each of 2008 and 2009 as per FanGraphs), you should use the same reasoning for Polanco&#8217;s upcoming stint with the Phillies.</p>
<p>Using that rationale, I don&#8217;t this is that bad a deal.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Bill Baer</title>
		<link>http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/comment-page-1/#comment-14311</link>
		<dc:creator>Bill Baer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 01:37:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crashburnalley.com/?p=599#comment-14311</guid>
		<description>JRVJ, the average annual value (AAV) of his contract (three years, $18 million) is $6 million.

Friar, none of us can really say he&#039;ll be good or bad, since he hasn&#039;t played third base in a long time. While he&#039;s been good at second base, that doesn&#039;t transfer over to third base -- it&#039;s a whole &#039;nother ball game, as they say.

Rich, I agree: I prefer Feliz on a one-year deal over Polanco on a three-year deal, but there&#039;s also the benefit of not having to worry about third base every season. There is something to be said about that, I guess.

Matt, I&#039;m still flabbergasted that he was a Type A free agent. The Tigers didn&#039;t offer him arbitration, though, so the Phillies wouldn&#039;t have lost their first round and a supplementary pick anyway.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JRVJ, the average annual value (AAV) of his contract (three years, $18 million) is $6 million.</p>
<p>Friar, none of us can really say he&#8217;ll be good or bad, since he hasn&#8217;t played third base in a long time. While he&#8217;s been good at second base, that doesn&#8217;t transfer over to third base &#8212; it&#8217;s a whole &#8216;nother ball game, as they say.</p>
<p>Rich, I agree: I prefer Feliz on a one-year deal over Polanco on a three-year deal, but there&#8217;s also the benefit of not having to worry about third base every season. There is something to be said about that, I guess.</p>
<p>Matt, I&#8217;m still flabbergasted that he was a Type A free agent. The Tigers didn&#8217;t offer him arbitration, though, so the Phillies wouldn&#8217;t have lost their first round and a supplementary pick anyway.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Matt</title>
		<link>http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/comment-page-1/#comment-14310</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 01:12:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crashburnalley.com/?p=599#comment-14310</guid>
		<description>One thing i think people are missing about Polanco (and this isn&#039;t to say that i like the signing) is that i think it was very largely motivated by the fact that he was not offered arbitration, meaning we keep a draft pick.  What i hope this means is that the Phils have decided their money is better spent trying to lock up either Lee and Werth long term.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One thing i think people are missing about Polanco (and this isn&#8217;t to say that i like the signing) is that i think it was very largely motivated by the fact that he was not offered arbitration, meaning we keep a draft pick.  What i hope this means is that the Phils have decided their money is better spent trying to lock up either Lee and Werth long term.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Rich Baxter</title>
		<link>http://crashburnalley.com/2009/12/03/phillies-sign-placido-polanco/comment-page-1/#comment-14309</link>
		<dc:creator>Rich Baxter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 00:51:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://crashburnalley.com/?p=599#comment-14309</guid>
		<description>I agree with you on this Bill, I wouldn&#039;t have given Polanco the three year deal, his numbers are in decline and he is no spring chicken. 

  This was as it seems now a bad deal. It was rushed and now we have Placido and his $18 million contract for 3 years. 

   I would have wanted to stay with Feliz at one more year at $5 million for this and see what would have developed. Why commit to Polanco, he just hasn&#039;t been that good. 

   This could be the first of many blunders that Amaro makes, the Mets sign Coste, we could have had him back but they bring in Brian Schneider and pay him 2.75 million for 2 years? Why? He was abysmal last year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree with you on this Bill, I wouldn&#8217;t have given Polanco the three year deal, his numbers are in decline and he is no spring chicken. </p>
<p>  This was as it seems now a bad deal. It was rushed and now we have Placido and his $18 million contract for 3 years. </p>
<p>   I would have wanted to stay with Feliz at one more year at $5 million for this and see what would have developed. Why commit to Polanco, he just hasn&#8217;t been that good. </p>
<p>   This could be the first of many blunders that Amaro makes, the Mets sign Coste, we could have had him back but they bring in Brian Schneider and pay him 2.75 million for 2 years? Why? He was abysmal last year.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>

