Someone Had to Do It

Four singles, four doubles, a triple, two home runs, and 14 RBI. That’s how productive Ryan Howard was in 39 plate appearances in the NLDS against the Colorado Rockies and in the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. His performance as offensive juggernaut against the Dodgers earned him NLCS MVP honors.

Suddenly, that Ryan Howard has vanished. In the World Series, he has struck out nine times in 13 plate appearances. He has reached base only twice (on two doubles) and driven in only one run. In Game 2 and his first two plate appearances in Game 3, he struck out six times in six straight plate appearances.

What happened?

Thanks to two southpaw starters in three games, Ryan Howard has faced a left-hander nearly 70% of the time in the World Series as opposed to 17% in the NLDS and 52% in the NLCS. The biggest difference is that Yankees southpaws have done a good job of sending Howard back to the dugout after his at-bat. He reached base in four of his 11 plate appearances (.364 OBP) in the NLCS but only twice in 9 PA (.222 OBP) in the World Series. Furthermore, the Yankees have struck him out five times in nine PA compared to the four strikeouts in 14 PA he accrued in the NLDS and NLCS combined.

Here’s a look at every PA he’s had against a lefty so far this post-season along with the results.

How have the Yankees been pitching him?

Let’s start with pitch distribution.

  • Breaking pitches — sliders and curves — have accounted for nearly three out of every five pitches (60%) Howard has seen.
  • Howard is seeing significantly less straight fastballs and nearly triple the rate of moving fastballs (two-seamers and cutters), though still not many.
  • Due to the preponderance of left-on-left match-ups, Howard has not seen any change-ups.

This graph will show you the location of those pitches. The breaking pitches have been slightly enlarged for emphasis.

Just about all of the breaking pitches have been on the outside part of the plate to Howard. Very few pitches have been thrown in the top-third of the strike zone.

This graph will show you the pitch location and the result:

  • Howard has swung and missed at a lot of pitches (black diamonds) in the lower third of the strike zone.
  • Howard has fouled off pitches (purple diamonds) in or near the strike zone that have been on the outer third, low, or both. He hasn’t been able to get his arms extended. The two that he hit for doubles (blue squares) were up and over the plate.
  • He has taken only one pitch in the top third of the strike zone. He has taken eight pitches below his knees for balls.

Essentially, the Yankees have been putting on a clinic on dealing with Ryan Howard. They have been making him face lefties against whom he had a .653 OPS  in the regular season. David Eckstein had a .657 OPS in the regular season, for a comparison. Against right-handers, Howard had a 1.086 OPS. Albert Pujols had a 1.101 OPS during the regular season.

Who would you rather oppose, Eckstein or Pujols? Easy decision.

Once the left-hander is in, they pepper the low-and-outside part of the strike zone with sliders and curve balls. That should be the M.O. of every team that has to deal with him.

The Yankees are the first team this post-season to figure that out.

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2 comments

  1. Rob A from BBD

    November 01, 2009 12:41 PM

    The Yankees have certainly done a great job making this guy look overrated. He might be able to hit bad pitching, but this is the Yankees. They’ve done their home work.

  2. e

    November 01, 2009 12:53 PM

    howard is quite predictable. people who would take him over utley are insane. the only way he gets hits off lefties if he gets lucky or the pitcher makes a mistake

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