Tex is a great first baseman. No doubt about it. But he’s never been – I would say – a “rangy” first baseman. Everything else he does is above average: his footwork, throwing arm, scooping, stretching ect. UZR really isn’t the best way to qualify a first baseman because of everything else involved. Especially when the difference is +/- 1.5 (above or below average), it really doesn’t make a big difference.

Obviously, when you see a bigger discrepancy in UZR in SS and 2B, it’s a much bigger deal. Not so much at 1B.

I’m sure Hinske will be added to the NYY bench. I imagine that will cost Guzman or Cervelli his spot.

I think we’ll see Molina catching Burnett again (ugh), and far more trust in Joba Chamberlain than is warranted. Too little trust in David Robertson. I can only hope that Charlie Manuel does some wierd stuff too (starting Pedro in game 2, for instance).

That’s a good point. I couldn’t find anything to disprove what you said, so I think you’re right. I had thought that because he was on the 40-man roster, he would be eligible, but I guess not.

Thanks for clarifying that.

He was on the 40 man, but without an injured outfielder I don’t think there is a way to add him to the postseason roster.

Kay,

I watched a large number of Philly games and in no way would Howard be compared to Keith Hernandez or Don Mattingly with the glove.

Maybe not, but neither would Teixeira.

That’s a hard question to answer because one tends to base the judgment on recent performance. Right now, we have no way of knowing if their 2009 defensive performances are flukes.

Based on probabilities, I would say it’s more likely that Jeter’s and Rollins’ 2009 seasons have been flukes while Howard’s and Teixeira’s have not, but there’s no possible way I can prove that.

So, hesitantly, I would take Jeter/Howard over Rollins/Teixeira.

If you had to choose two guys to play defense, would it be Jeter and Howard or Rollins and Teixeira? The stats say one thing. My heart tells me another. Funny.

Thanks so much for all your work. This only makes me more excited for the Series, if that is possible.

John

Howard, before the season, worked with Sam Perlozzo to improve his defense and it has paid off in spades. Likewise, Jeter had for a while been a very poor defender, but whatever he has done this year has worked well.

I used fielding runs from FanGraphs in my analysis. FanGraphs bases fielding runs off of UZR/150, which is generally regarded as the most reliable fielding metric available, and is as stable from year-to-year as wOBA.

Teixeira, over his career, has been a slightly above-average fielder, but I believe his reputation as an elite defender really took off last year, when he posted an insane (for him) 9.3 UZR/150 with the Braves and Angels. He had posted a UZR/150 in the negatives from 2005-07 and once again in ‘09.

What that could signify is that the fielders around him in ‘08 were much better than those in other years. In other words, if Teixeira is surrounded by good fielders, especially a good second baseman, he can let ground balls go by and simply cover first base. On the other hand, if he is teammates with a poor-fielding second baseman, he will have to play a more aggressive first base and as such will make more mistakes.

That’s one of the issues we are dealing with when it comes to quantifying defense. Simply put, Teixeira is not as good as he showed in ‘08 (9.3) but he is also not quite as bad as he showed in ‘07 (-5.2).

To illustrate this, check out the graphs made by Justin Bopp at Beyond the Box Score.