BDD: Rookies of the Year

At Baseball Daily Digest, I make my selections for AL and NL Rookies of the Year.

Looking at WAR, we can narrow our field of eight down to six. The Phillies’ J.A. Happ and the Rockies’ Dexter Fowler are the only candidates with a WAR total under 2. Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates and Randy Wells of the Cubs are the only two with a WAR total above 3. The middle four — Tommy Hanson, Garrett Jones, Chris Coghlan, and Casey McGehee — are separated by fewer than three-tenths of a point of WAR, between 2.33 and 2.60 (accounting for base running).

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  1. PhillyFriar

    October 14, 2009 02:11 PM

    B-b-but… the Marlins announcers said that Chris Coghlan was clearly the best rookie this year!

    (Agreed that McCutchen should win the NL. I’m pulling for Happ for obvious reasons, but McCutchen is certainly the most deserving.)

  2. eh

    October 14, 2009 03:22 PM

    Andrew Bailey in the AL should be hands down. People are talking about M. Rivera for MVP.. Bailey has been as good as Rivera with more innings.

    I went Coghlan in the NL. he had a great year, and has a great backstory.

  3. Bill Baer

    October 14, 2009 03:38 PM

    Just out of principle, I don’t consider relievers for those awards. Bailey had an incredible season, but he pitched only one-third the innings as the other pitching contenders.

  4. AJH

    October 14, 2009 04:39 PM

    Anderson is definitely the better choice for AL ROY, despite the lower K/9 and higher WHIP and ERA compared to his teammate. Besides Bill’s comment about pitching three times as many innings, Bailey’s BABIP is an insanely lucky .220, where Anderson’s is a more realistic .312. Put Bailey’s BABIP at Anderson’s level and you’re looking at a WHIP of more than 1 and a (hypothetically) higher ERA, which wouldn’t be good enough to put him in the ROY discussion as a reliever.

  5. eh

    October 14, 2009 04:50 PM

    BABIP should be factored in when you don’t have great stuff. Bailey has a very good cutter.

    Was he a bit lucky? sure, but his FIP was 2.56, still very, very good.

    IMO BABIP should be used for projections, not to penalize a player for his success particularly when you have plus stuff, and your fastball increases as the year goes on.

    Will he be as good next year?Probably not, but he was the stuff to still be an upper end reliever.

  6. Bill Baer

    October 14, 2009 05:08 PM

    Right, luck factors should be used when looking ahead, not behind. I’m sure that just about every award candidate was more lucky than his peers in some way, shape, or form. Luck is a big part of the great game of baseball.

  7. Mike

    October 15, 2009 01:40 PM

    This is to eh

    Bailey was great, no doubt. But you aren’t accounting for leverage. Thus, he was not as good as Mo.

    My AL ROY was Brett Anderson, though Andrus is a legit choice.

  8. Eh

    October 15, 2009 02:45 PM

    A lower BAA, WHIP, HR/9, hits/9,etc in more innings pitched was better than him, regardless of what team anyone plays for.

    on a sidebar about anderson, outside of probably kershaw, i’m not sure there is a first or second year pitcher with more upside.

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