While America Sleeps, Lidge Saves

If you were sleeping while the Phillies finished off Game 3 of the NLDS at 2:15 Eastern, well, your cardiologist will be happy to hear that. For those of us who resisted the urge to sleep and ignored tomorrow’s responsibilities, we have a whole host of health problems thanks to the lack of sleep and the intensity of the situation Brad Lidge found himself in. Personally, I made a pact with Satan to ensure that the Phillies kept the lead — I don’t know what everyone else did. Carlos Gonzalez voodoo dolls, maybe? (Those didn’t work!)

What was easy to the 2008 Phillies has been extremely difficult to the ’09 squad, especially when it comes to finishing out games. Starter J.A. Happ struggled and could only go three innings, putting strain on the bullpen. Joe Blanton came in and pitched two and two-thirds effective innings with the only blemish coming on a solo home run hit by Carlos Gonzalez (who was 3-for-4 with a walk, double, home run, RBI, and a stolen base on the night).

As in Game 2, another Phillies’ left-handed pitcher came up limping. First, it was Happ when he took a line drive off of his shin thanks to Seth Smith. Tonight/this morning, it was Scott Eyre in the seventh inning when he attempted to field a Dexter Fowler sacrifice bunt. He appeared to roll his ankle and was unable to make the play. As a result, Manuel had to call on Ryan Madson to limit the damage, making it all too clear that Lidge would be relied upon to close out the game should the Phillies take the lead. If Eyre is unfit to pitch, Sergio Escalona — another left-hander — could be called upon to take his spot on the roster in the NLCS.

The game featured 11 plays with a Leverage Index of 3 or higher, according to FanGraphs. Two of them — sacrifice flies by Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Howard — resulted in runs, and only two of them resulted in the batter reaching base. When Huston Street started the top of the ninth inning, the Rockies had a 50% chance to win. After he got the third out, the Rockies’ chance to win was at 21%. When Lidge got Brad Hawpe to ground out to Chase Utley to start the bottom of the ninth, the Rockies had a 12% chance of winning, but after Carlos Gonzalez walked and stole second base, that went all the way up to 29%.

You can understand why just about anyone viewing the game had lumps in their throat and were busy dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s on their contracts with the devil.

It is a shame that most of North America, or at least those on the East coast, were sleeping while this game coursed to its end. Game 3 was the epitome of what playoff baseball is all about: minimizing mistakes, maintaining control in bad situations, and making smart tactical decisions. For instance:

  • When Eyre hurt his leg or ankle (we should know details later today), the Rockies had runners on first and third with no outs. Even worse was that both runners, Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler, are extremely fast. Since a pitcher coming in after an injury gets as much time as he needs to warm up, Charlie Manuel chose to bring in Ryan Madson, even though Chad Durbin had been warming up for a while. Rather than save Madson for the ninth inning when the Phillies have a lead (which wasn’t a guarantee, of course), Manuel used his best relief pitcher in a crucial situation.

    Madson did allow Gonzalez to score from third base on a Troy Tulowitzki sacrifice fly, but it could have been much worse. According to Baseball Prospectus, teams are expected to score 1.77 runs (or 2, if you round up) in that situation. Madson sandwiched strikeouts of Todd Helton and Yorvit Torrealba around that run-scoring out.

    Good managers realize that they should use their best pitchers in the most important situations.

  • Jimmy Rollins singled to lead off the ninth inning against Huston Street. The Phillies, known almost exclusively for their power, played small ball. Manuel instructed Shane Victorino to sacrifice bunt to move Rollins to second base. Shane laid down a perfect bunt, and Street was looking down the barrel at Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez coming up with one out and a runner in scoring position.Rollins eventually scored on a Ryan Howard sacrifice fly following a controversial infield single from Chase Utley.
  • In the bottom of the ninth with one out, Carlos Gonzalez had a great at-bat against Lidge. Lidge fell behind 3-0 but battled back to get the count to 3-2. Gonzalez fouled off some vicious sliders that most hitters — at least last year — would have swung and missed at. Gonzalez drew the fourth ball on the eighth pitch of the at-bat. While Lidge faced pinch-hitter Jason Giambi, Gonzalez then stole second base. Up to that point, that stolen base was the second-highest-leveraged situation.
  • Lidge got Giambi to pop out in foul territory for the second out, but Phillies and Rockies fans alike knew that it wasn’t over yet. Lefties have mashed Lidge all year, and Helton is no exception. Over his career, Helton has four hits (two doubles and a triple) in 11 at-bats against Lidge.

    Charlie Manuel strode to the mound for a chat with Lidge, his catcher, and the Phillies infield. Presumably, Manuel said that Helton could be pitched around with first base open. And that’s exactly what Lidge did. Helton drew the five-pitch walk, and Lidge had to face the right-handed Troy Tulowitzki, 0-for-3 against Lidge, instead.

    It was risky, putting the winning run on base almost intentionally. But that risk is a safer bet than the risk of facing Helton in that situation. The gamble paid off, as Tulowitzki popped out to left fielder Ben Francisco to end the game.

The Phillies emerged victorious in a well-fought, tooth-and-nail game in frigid Colorado weather that ended at 2:15 Eastern. Now, they look to clinch the series behind Game One ace Cliff Lee at 6:07 Eastern this evening.

For those of us who have to wake up at 7:30 AM, we have just over five hours of sleep to work with. The players don’t like the game times, and neither should the fans. It’s shameful that a vast majority of kids and responsible adults were unable to stay up late enough to watch the game. MLB’s devotion to its broadcasters will eventually cost them present and future fans of the great game of baseball.

Game graph above courtesy FanGraphs.

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12 comments

  1. Tiff

    October 12, 2009 07:20 AM

    BRAVO! 2 hours of sleep but thankfully, the adrenaline is still high. Can’t wait for tonight!
    Ps. I’m a big fan of your blogs over my morning coffee ;) keep up the good writing!!

  2. NED

    October 12, 2009 09:45 AM

    great article. but what exactly is the graph showing, percentage chance to win?

  3. AJH

    October 12, 2009 11:33 AM

    Exactly, the graph tracks the home team’s chance to win (0-100%) based on historical data of the likelihood to score in a particular spot in the game. Because it’s based on historical data, I don’t think individual statistics aren’t taken into account, so having Chase Utley up to bat would theoretically generate the same win probability as a pitcher in that exact same spot.

  4. Yanoff

    October 12, 2009 11:36 AM

    Well stated! As a midwesterner, I fought off sleep and stayed up until 1:15 a.m., and it sure was worth it. Even with as sleepy as I feel this morning, I have a smile on my face.

  5. eh

    October 12, 2009 12:46 PM

    good point on charlie using madsen there, my thinking exactly. As an A’s fan, that AB by giambi was a microcosm of his stint with the a’s this year.

    Your next blog should be:

    ” Unused and Annoying phrases used by people during baseball playoffs:

    Example:

    Cluth
    big game pitcher
    a true mvp
    a choker
    not showing up
    ..when it counts
    the biggest hit of the game in the 9th inning
    isn’t ready for the big time yet
    buckles under the pressure
    a true mvp
    is a team player
    shows intangibles really do matter…
    what does VORP have to say about that?

    am i missing any? it’s funny that most/all of those phrases are used by people who refuse to accept numbers/sabermetrics, etc.

    here is a true reason why playoff sample sizes are worthless:

    Has fuentes been the best ” closer” so far this playoffs? maybe.

    he was the worst closer in the AL West all year.

  6. eh

    October 12, 2009 12:47 PM

    oops, meant to say ” over used” not ” un used”

  7. eh

    October 12, 2009 06:58 PM

    rockies are so incredibly average.

    Dodgers- Phillies will be a good one

  8. Jake

    October 12, 2009 09:11 PM

    Christ, The Phillies are absolutely determined to send their fans into cardiac arrest.

    Good luck with the Dodgers. Do they have home field? I think they do but I’m too lazy to verify.

  9. eh

    October 12, 2009 09:28 PM

    can’t believe tracy didn’t go to a lefty to face howard.

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