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At Baseball Daily Digest, I analyze what’s wrong with Jimmy Rollins and theorize what can be done to minimize the damage inflicted by his poor performances.
He went from about 2 runs below average against the fastball last year to nearly 9.5 runs below average. He’s also performed noticeably worse against sliders and change-ups.
The big change, at least so far, is Rollins’ BABIP, which is currently .234 compared to his career average of .297. Now, it’s way too early to use BABIP and feel comfortable about it, but I ran a few numbers to see if Rollins’ BABIP is statistically significant anyway. At a 95% level of confidence, we’d expect his BABIP to be between .281 and .313. As it stands, his current BABIP is more than two and a half standard deviations below the mean. Again, with the sample size warning in mind, there seem to be other causes for his lack of success on balls in play other than bad luck.
Update: Charlie Manuel must have read my article. I kid, I kid. Rollins was dropped in the lineup for tonight’s game against the Dodgers, however: