Shane Victorino Is A Hero

The graph above shows the Phillies’ OPS by inning. Aside from the third inning for whatever reason, the Phils’ offense has been anemic until the late stages of the game. Did that ever hold true in tonight’s win over the Florida Marlins.

They scraped together just three hits and two walks off of Josh Johnson in seven innings, and nothing off of Leo Nunez in the eighth, so it looked like it’d be yet another disappointing loss when Matt Lindstrom, with a three-run lead, closed out the game. It was not to be.

After Howard grounded out sharply to shallow left field (he can thank the shift for that), the Phillies went on a rampage.

  • Jayson Werth: First-pitch fastball smoked to left-center for a double
  • Raul Ibanez: Five-pitch walk after going ahead 3-0
  • Matt Stairs: Pinch-hit RBI single in a 2-2 count
  • Lou Marson: Five-pitch walk after going ahead 3-0
  • Eric Bruntlett: Five-pitch strikeout looking on a vicious curve ball
  • Jimmy Rollins: Five-pitch walk after going ahead 3-1
  • Shane Victorino: Grand slam well over the right field fence after going ahead 2-1
  • Chase Utley: Solo home run with the count full

At that point, left-hander Renyel Pinto came in to try and get the final out but Ryan Howard doubled to left-center and Jayson Werth walked before Raul Ibanez struck out. All told, the Phils scored seven runs on four hits (two home runs) and three walks in two-thirds of an inning off of Matt Lindstrom.

If you’re counting, that’s 14 total bases in 9 at-bats, a SLG of 1.556. That brings the Phillies’ ninth-inning SLG to .804, and their OBP to .383 for an OPS of 1.187. That is, quite frankly, redonkulous.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins, April 24, 2009Brett Myers did not pitch very well, but still gave the Phillies a quality start: six innings of three-run baseball. He allowed three-runs in the first inning on a tape measure home run to Dan Uggla well beyond the left field fence. Myers allowed 14 base runners on eight hits and six walks. Clay Condrey pitched efficiently in the seventh and eighth innings, and Ryan Madson closed it out, striking out the side after allowing a lead-off walk and a double to Hanley Ramirez.

Courtesy FanGraphs is the Win Probability graph of tonight’s game. Gotta love that looooooooong green line heading from the top of the graph to about the bottom. Stairs’ at-bat had a Leverage Index (LI) of 5.71 and Victorino’s at-bat had an LI of 9.16. His grand slam brought the Marlins’ Win Expectancy (WE) from 76.5% to 4.2%, a 72.3% decrease with one swing of the bat (link).