BDD: Phillies ’09 Preview and Ryan Howard

I have two articles up at Baseball Daily Digest today.

The first is a preview of the defending World Series champions. One of my bold predictions:

Don’t Be Surprised If…

A Phillie wins both the NL MVP and Cy Young awards.

Also, I have hopped back on the Ryan Howard bandwagon:

When it comes to Ryan Howard, we make a lot of assumptions based on not a whole lot of actual evidence. We pigeonhole the guy, calling him a one-dimensional out-of-shape tub o’ lard who is going to crash and burn in epic fashion.

The truth is that we really don’t have enough information — fancy that — to make a reasonable conclusion as to how best to project him. In other words, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis that Howard will be more like his 2005-07 self than his ’08 self.