BDD: Mets’ Murphy is a Mirage

At Baseball Daily Digest, I explain why the Mets’ starting left fielder is being overrated.

[…]what really jumps out at you about his brief Major League success is his unsustainable line drive percentage: 33.3%. The average LD% is around 20%.

Because he hit a lot of line drives, he was very fortunate on balls in play, reflected by his BABIP of .386. If we assume he’s a normal baseball player with a LD% around 20% give or take a couple of percentage points, we would expect his BABIP to naturally be as many as 50 or 60 points lower to the .320-.330 area. As such, his true level of production isn’t the .373 wOBA he had last year nor the .368 Bill James predicts for 2009; it’s likely much closer to the .330 that Marcel predicts.