2. Here’s the breakdown…

Myers ~ Maine
Moyer ~ Perez
Blanton > Pelfrey (but Pelfrey has more upside)
Happ > Any #5 candidate of the Mets’

If Kendrick wins the #5 spot, the back of the rotation becomes less of an advantage for the Phillies, but I think his shot at the spot has been diminished. Chan Ho Park is another candidate but he is pretty much the epitome of a #5 starter and is better than any of the guys the Mets are trying out.

3. Your logic is faulty, since you’re setting your own subjective standards.

4. Check out my recent article on Murphy. I think that .849 OPS projection in left field is way too kind. Ibanez is pretty much a lock for a 120 or higher OPS+ while I’d bet Murphy struggles to get it over 100 in 2009. So, yeah, advantage Phillies.

Jayson Werth is a lock for an .800+ OPS while the projections (except ZiPS) have Church struggling to cross the .800 threshold.

5. I didn’t cherry-pick anything. Murph’s LD% last season was unsustainable. It significantly increased his BABIP thus significantly increasing his production. When his LD% drops to a normal 20% his BABIP will drop to a normal .320 or so. A 13% reduction in line drives and a 70-point reduction in BABIP means Murph ain’t going to be what he was last year — not even close.

6. But Tatis will be platooning with Murphy in left field. I didn’t just pull that out of thin air.

And again, I didn’t just decide that Murphy’s projection (it was Murphy, not Evans) was too good; it was based on objective analysis of his peripherals.

7. The Phillies steal as many bases but at a nearly 10% better clip. You should probably read this where I explain defense and base running in more detail.

1. I don’t know why on earth you’d discount Garcia’s chances of making the rotation. He’s clearly in the mix.
2. Giving the Phillies an advantage in the back of the rotation when you’re talking about differences of .01-.11 in ERA (except for #5, where again, I have no idea why you decided Garcia is out) is laughable.
3. If the Phillies have a slight advantage in the back of the rotation based on an insignificant ERA difference, closer would have to be counted as a huge advantage for the Mets given the gap there.
4. A .028 edge is a slight advantage for the Phillies in right field, but a .019 edge for the Mets constitutes a wash at SS? Your cutoff point is obviously somewhere in between, but intuitively it doesn’t make sense to draw a distinction between OPS edges .009 apart.
5. Cherry picking exceptions from your methodology is the #1 sign of a hack analysis. Deciding that Ibanez is going to significantly outperform David Murphy and calling it a huge advantage is the perfect example of that.
6. Similarly, deciding that Evans’ projection is so optimistic and that Tatis will start enough to turn the bench from a slight edge for the Mets to a slight advantage for the Phillies is another cherry picked exception.
7. I’ll give you defense, but I don’t know how on earth you arrive at the conclusion that the Phillies have an advantage in baserunning.

So, had you been consistent in applying your methodology, your conclusions would have looked different. I suppose one can’t expect much else from a fan blog. But in addition, I think your methodology is flawed anyway. Deciding that a team has an advantage at a position based merely on projected ERA or OPS is grossly oversimplified.

Bottom line, these two teams are evenly matched, and barring major injuries or trades, this one is going right down to the wire. There’s no discernible edge either way.

PECOTA has the Mets at 90 wins, the Phillies at 87.

CHONE has the Phillies at 87, the Mets at 86.

ZiPS has the Phillies at 91, the Mets at 88.

Marcel has both the Phillies and Mets at 90.

Ron Shandler has the Phillies at 95, the Mets at 92.

Bill James has the Phillies at 93 wins, the Mets at 92.

Just one more EA Sports installment getting worse with time. If I didn’t know better, I’d say EA is out to destroy video games as we know it.

Sega Genesis rules!

I played the MLB 2K9 demo last night, I wasn’t too impressed with it. I had 2K8 and it ended up collecting dust, but also ended up getting me 20% off Guitar Hero World Tour when I got it at Gamestop.

Pay attention to the dirt that gets kicked up when the players run the bases. It looks Sega Genesis-ish (say that five times fast).