On Relievers Blowing

by Bill Baer on December 9th, 2008
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | No Comments »

Blowing leads. Get your mind out of the gutter, would you?

Baseball Think Factory’s Mike Emeigh did some research on relievers and their propensities for lead-blowing. The criteria:

Reliever performance when starting the ninth inning with a lead of three runs or fewer, 1954-2008, minimum 100 leads

Some Philly notables (note that these are overall career percentages):

Bold indicates the player is still active.

  • Brad Lidge, 10% (12th-best)
  • Ugueth Urbina, 10.8%
  • Todd Jones, 10.8%
  • Tom Gordon, 11.3%
  • Mike Williams, 11.5%
  • Billy Wagner, 11.7%
  • Jose Mesa, 12.6%
  • Roger McDowell, 12.9%
  • Dan Plesac, 13.3%
  • Ricky Bottalico, 14.2%
  • Mitch Williams, 14.6%
  • Jeff Brantley, 15.3%
  • Roberto Hernandez, 15.3%
  • Antonio Alfonseca, 15.6%
  • Mike Timlin, 16.4%

I eyeballed the list so I may have forgotten a few — let me know if you spot ‘em.

It’s interesting to note how many great relievers the Phillies had, but unfortunately it was when they were over the hill. This essentially proves that Ed Wade had a “veteran reliever” fetish.

I think they have a hotline for that now, actually. You call and Dan Plesac will talk to you over the phone about how he led teams with his veteranosity.

On a non-Phillies note, check out the total number of leads Mariano Rivera had relative to everyone else and his 9% BL. The only ones even close to him are Trevor Hoffman (10%) and Todd Jones (about 11%).

Lastly, it’s also interesting to note — on the Phillies’ list above — how many of them are members of the sports media. Todd Jones has been writing for The Sporting News (not sure if his retirement changes that), Dan Plesac will be on the new MLB Network, both Ricky Bottalico and Mitch Williams are analysts for Comcast Sportsnet, and Jeff Brantley covers Reds games.

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