2009 Philadelphia Phillies Projections
by Bill Baer on November 21st, 2008Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | No Comments »
Hop over to The Good Phight where MattS dishes out his projections for the current batch of Phillies in 2009. It’s one of the more thorough projection explanations out there.
Here’s a snippet of his explanation:
Rollins power went down this year, but he appeared to master the strike zone like never before, raising his BB% from 6.4% to 9.4% and his K% down from 11.9% to 9.9% since his MVP season. His peripherals seem to strengthen this case—his Swing% went down from 42.9% to 39.7% while his Contact% when up from 86.9% to 90.8%. However, this is mostly a higher (78.0%) contact rate on balls out of the strike zone, almost 10% more than the previous year, which was probably the cause of the .290 BABIP, lower than the previous years’ .303. I expect a little bit of reversion on all counts: a .298 BABIP, an 8.4 UBB%, 11 K%.
