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Four Months of Business for the Phillies

As content as everyone must feel seeing the 2008 World Series flag flapping in the wind at Citizens Bank Park, the focus is still directly ahead and no one is going to rest on his laurels. The Phillies have plenty of work to do if they want to continue to play at an elite level in 2009. Already, they’ve declined the options of Tom Gordon and So Taguchi.

The following players are arbitration-eligible (2008 salary in parentheses):

• Joe Blanton ($3.7 million)
• Eric Bruntlett ($0.6 million)
• Clay Condrey ($0.42 million)
• Greg Dobbs ($0.44 million)
• Cole Hamels ($0.5 million)
• Ryan Howard ($10 million)
• Ryan Madson ($1.4 million)
• Shane Victorino ($0.48 million)
• Jayson Werth ($1.4 million)

That’s a total of about $19 million. Using JFLNYC’s payroll estimates for 2009, we could see that total jump up to about $33 million. Most notably, Howard is likely to jump up to $15 million and Hamels to $5 million.

On the books are:

• Adam Eaton: $8.5 million
• Pedro Feliz: $5 million
• Geoff Jenkins: $6.75 million
• Brad Lidge: $11.5 million
• Brett Myers: $12 million
• Jimmy Rollins: $7.5 million
• J.C. Romero: $4 million
• Matt Stairs: $1 million
• Chase Utley: $11 million

That’s a total of over $67 million.

The Phillies also control Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste, Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ and all of the other prospects you saw, mostly at the end of the season. Those four and the others are likely to make around a half-million each.

Add that all up and you come to about $90 million.

Phillies free agents include: Pat Burrell, Jamie Moyer, Scott Eyre, Tadahito Iguchi, Chad Durbin, and Rudy Seanez.

This leaves holes in left field, two starting rotation spots, a back-up infielding spot, and three bullpen slots including a LOOGY. In other words…

C: Carlos Ruiz
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
3B: Pedro Feliz
SS: Jimmy Rollins
LF: ?
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Jayson Werth

Bench: Eric Bruntlett, Chris Coste, Greg Dobbs, Geoff Jenkins, Matt Stairs, ?, ? (if Amaro chooses to fill in the hole in LF by either just plugging in Dobbs and/or Jenkins, or to shift LF and RF around, there could be another need for a back-up outfielder, potentially Greg Golson)

Starting Pitching: Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, ?, ? (could be filled by one or two of Happ, Kendrick, and Eaton)

Relief Pitching: Condrey, Lidge, Madson, Romero, ?, ?, ? (could be filled by all or one or two of Happ, Kendrick, and Eaton)

The Phillies’ payroll was over $98 million on Opening Day 2008, but we can expect an increase, between $105 and $110 reasonably speaking. So, that gives the Phillies around $20 million with which to fill the hole in left field and the holes in the rotation and in the bullpen. Given the lack of salary room, we can cut out a few free agents, especially now that Pat Burrell declined the Phillies’ offer of two years and a total of $22 million (which, on average, would be a pay cut).

On the list of free agent outfielders whom the Phillies should have interest, we can cut out Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, and Manny Ramirez. Factoring in that the Phillies are looking for a solid right-handed bat to replace Burrell’s, that would naturally exclude all but Ramirez anyway.

Realistically speaking, if the Phillies don’t re-sign Burrell, they’re going to have to fill in the hole in left field either via trade or from within the organization (Jenkins, Dobbs, Golson).

As for starting pitching, there are some attractive options, such as C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Ryan Dempster, Derek Lowe, Mike Mussina, Oliver Perez, Andy Pettitte, and Ben Sheets. Almost all of these pitchers are going to earn salaries in the double-digit millions. If the Phillies can’t re-sign Jamie Moyer, the Phillies should either take a big gulp and dump close to all of their available salary room on one of those starters (probably Derek Lowe, given his ground ball tendencies that would mesh well in a fly ball-friendly hitter’s ballpark), or accept a rotation that includes Kyle Kendrick and J.A. Happ (and sending Adam Eaton to the pacific ocean in a deep-sea diving bell).

As for the bullpen, the Phillies have all of their main pieces intact, so it’s just a matter of finding some cheap, quality arms if they can’t re-sign Chad Durbin or Scott Eyre. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs noted that Jeremy Affeldt would be a bargain, and he should definitely be on the Phillies’ radar. Other free agent relievers the Phillies should be interested in are: Joe Beimel, LaTroy Hawkins, Will Ohman, Darren Oliver, and Dave Weathers.

The Phillies have to focus on about 25% of their roster for 2009, and if they can do that adequately, they should have a great shot at defending their World Series championship. One thing’s for sure: we won’t be hearing the New York Mets or their fans saying anything at all about the Phillies, will we, Carlos Beltran?