[...] at 2B, and slip & slide to home plate like Rick Dempsey with a pillow down his shorts, then you CALL THE F*CKING GAME. You don’t wait until the road team somehow ties the game and THEN give the go-ahead to roll [...]

League adjustments are important, but the NL had about as high an OPS as the AL despite the DH/P difference. The NL hit for a .744 OPS and the AL hit for a .756 OPS.

If he wasn’t so impatient, and knew how to take a walk

He’s walking unintentionally at the same rate; he just had a huge dip in intentional walks.

As for facing lefties, as his OPS against them has decreased, his PA against them has increased. I expect that trend to continue.

Well, if you are looking at the leagues as a whole, i would include the outliers.

Outside of that, I agree with everything you said. Also, it should be noted, Howard’s OPS, in fact, all numbers have taken a huge dive as well aginst lefties throughout the past three seasons.

If he wasn’t so impatient, and knew how to take a walk, he’d be in a lot better position.

Frankly, the two teams’ ‘pens are too close to make any definitive statement that one is better than the other.

Also, the AL was 149-103 in interleague play this year. 46 games is pretty substantial.

Overall inter-league records are bad for saying that one league is better than another. Why do the contests of the Royals, Pirates, Mariners, and Padres interest us in a discussion about the World Series?

Also, sorry to make a second post

Don’t be sorry, post here as often or as much as you’d like!

i can’t see the phillies extending howard.

Unfortunately, unless Ruben Amaro is the analytical type (which he hasn’t shown), the Phillies will continue to make their decisions based on intangibles like team chemistry, as well as business (Howard is likable and thus very marketable). Those reasons, and the fact that traditional statistics do a bad job of showing Howard’s weaknesses, lead me to believe that Howard will get an extension similar to and exceeding that given to Chase Utley.

he wants 20 mil per, he probably isn’t worth half that?

If my understanding is correct, a free agent replacement player is worth $3.33 million per win. Howard has been worth, on average, 7.6 wins per season using WARP-3 from Baseball Prospectus. Their replacement level is ridiculously low, so I will lazily chop off 2.5 wins since it sounds about right.

5 wins per season at $3.33 million per win = $16.65 million. Howard would technically be overpaid by my pseudo-scientific analysis, but not by much. However, if you incorporate the fact that he’s declined for two straight seasons and has either already hit his peak or will be hitting it very soon, his value declines significantly quickly, so a long-term deal is a bad idea for the Phillies.

He really needs to right the ship next year.

The biggest reasons for his decline from 2007 to ‘08 were half as many walks (35 to 17) and a lower BABIP than usual (.289 this year to an expected BABIP of .343 and a career average of .334).

If anything, I’m actually optimistic for Howard next season. Although his walk rate is lower, it’s almost entirely because of a lack of IBB’s, and his strikeout rate decreased while still keeping up a very good line drive rate (22.3%). The lower BABIP is basically a result of bad luck and the shift, which probably won’t change. I think that if Howard hits more fly balls than ground balls, or makes a more conscious attempt to drive balls to left field, he’ll be more successful in 2009.

Deal, click the following links for the normalized strike zone maps for Games 3 and 5:

- Game 3: Click here
- Game 5: Click here

[...] Alley – MLB, Umpires Make Mockery of World Series Salty Milk – Playboy Playmate Supports Phillies Boston Sports Posters – I Guess I’m Moving to [...]

Also, his stats show he’s on the decline, pretty seriously too. He really needs to right the ship next year. Tex would be a better fit, as Tex is a superior baseball player.

TB’s pen also had a lower BAA, and lower OPS than the phillies.

Also, the AL was 149-103 in interleague play this year. 46 games is pretty substantial.

Paul, look at it this way…
– Phillies IP w/ sloppy conditions: 6
– Rays IP w/ sloppy conditions 5

When play resumes…
– Phillies IP w/ fair conditions: 3
– Rays IP w/ fair conditions: 4