The 2008 MLB Awards Bonanza
by Bill Baer on October 5th, 2008Posted in MLB, Media, Sabermetrics | Print | 17 Comments »
I finally got around to it. My apologies to those of you (read: no one) who waited with bated breath.
Last year’s debates about the awards led to some controversy but hopefully we have all learned a lesson (which is: I’m always right) and can traverse through this year’s awards intelligently. I’m talking to you again, BBWAA. Last year’s bonanza was fun, especially when I was told “forget ur format and just watch the games” and “to say your format is flawed is an understatement.”
To preface the bonanza, I’ll quote my methodology explained last year:
I make heavy use of Sabermetrics, and light to no use of “traditional” statistics like wins and losses, saves, batting average, and the like.
In addition, I intentionally do not take into account the player’s team and whether or not they have been in contention. It is my belief that a player’s contributions on a failing team are worth just as much, if not more than another player’s contributions on a winning team. This is a debate that always pops up around this time of year, so feel free to try to change my mind on it.
In other words, you can wrap [nerd] [/nerd] tags around my article. Let’s go.
American League Most Valuable Player: Milton Bradley
I really had a tough time deciding the AL MVP. There are basically five choices: Alex Rodriguez, Dustin Pedroia, Grady Sizemore, Joe Mauer, and Bradley. I had gone into writing this article expecting to pick Sizemore, but a close look at the statistics leads me to pick Milton Bradley.
Milton Bradley had the best offensive numbers — and the best differential between his OPS and the average OPS for hitters at his position — out of the quintet but gets points taken from him for being a DH. He also ranked behind three of the other four in WPA. Those are the only arguments that can really be made against Bradley, however. Bradley had the highest PMLVr (which undervalues walks, benefiting only Sizemore), which is somewhat surprising considering the DH is the most offense-heavy position because the player doesn’t have to play defense. Maybe Jose Vidro has something to do with it.
The top five:
- Milton Bradley
- Joe Mauer
- Alex Rodriguez
- Dustin Pedroia
- Grady Sizemore
National League Most Valuable Player: Albert Pujols
This is really, really easy. He had, by far, the highest VORP in the Majors and he’s an extremely good fielder as well. The only hitter remotely close to him in OPS is Chipper Jones (who’s also very close to him in PMLVr) at a good 70 points behind, 1.114 to 1.044.
There’s nothing to debate — Pujols is the NL MVP. It will be a sad sight if he gets shafted on the award for the second season in a row (and you feel for him even more when you look at his 2002-04 seasons and then realize that Barry Bonds put up even better numbers).
The top five:
- Albert Pujols
- Chipper Jones
- Lance Berkman
- Hanley Ramirez
- Jose Reyes
American League Cy Young Award: Cliff Lee
I really wanted to give the AL Cy Young to Roy Halladay because he was my pre-season pick to win it, but Lee has slightly better numbers.
Halladay’s pitched about 23 innings more (thanks in part to 5 more complete games) but overall has been slightly inferior to Lee. A 0.06 difference in WHIP isn’t that much to tip the scale in any way towards Halladay.
The top five:
- Cliff Lee
- Roy Halladay
- Jon Lester
- Mariano Rivera
- John Danks
National League Cy Young Award: Tim Lincecum
Johan Santana made a late push to put him neck-and-neck with Lincecum, but the Giants ace’s peripherals give him the nod.
The FIP is what really clinches the deal for Lincecum, but the K/9 is very impressive.
The top-five:
- Tim Lincecum
- Johan Santana
- Ryan Dempster
- Cole Hamels
- Dan Haren
American League Rookie of the Year: Mike Aviles
This is not a contrarian pick, believe it or not. Mike Aviles has been slightly more valuable than Evan Longoria. They’ve both close offensively: Aviles’ 116 OPS+ and 35.0 VORP to Longoria’s 130 OPS+ and 39.3 VORP, but Aviles has been the best defensive shortstop at a more demanding defensive position. Additionally, Aviles has a greater differential between his OPS and the average OPS at his position (POS OPS in the following chart), .140 to .106.
The top-five:
- Mike Aviles
- Evan Longoria
- Armando Galarraga
- Denard Span
- Joba Chamberlain
National League Rookie of the Year: Geovany Soto
This one’s not particularly difficult. The only real competition Soto has is Joey Votto but Soto is a catcher and Votto is a first baseman. However, the difference between Soto’s OPS and the average at his position is almost five times higher than Votto’s.
The top-five:
- Geovany Soto
- Joey Votto
- Jair Jurrjens
- Hiroki Kuroda
- John Lannan
American League Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon
Maddon is an easy choice since he took a team that was expected to finish third or fourth (although an improvement over previous years) to American League Eastern Division champions. It was the first time in franchise history the Rays had finished higher than fourth place and with more than 70 wins (they had 97), and they had 31 more wins this season than they did last season.
There’s no great way to measure exactly how much a manager influenced his team so there’s a lot of subjectivity here. Maddon could simply just be the guy at the helm while all this happened, and may not have had a whole lot to do with it, but there’s just no way to prove it either way.
The Rays went from worst to first and that’s quite an accomplishment.
National League Manager of the Year: Lou Piniella
Lou’s only competition here is Charlie Manuel, but his team won 97 games in a tougher division that included another 90-win team in the NL Wild Card-winning Milwaukee Brewers. Additionally, the Cubs were the class of the National League almost all season, sporting the best offense and the second-best pitching staff. The Phillies, by comparison, were third and fourth respectively, and played in a relatively easier division.
American League Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award: Mariano Rivera
Everyone is talking about Francisco Rodriguez but he’s a bum compared to Mo. Rivera’s season was bananas. 308 ERA+ and a 0.665 WHIP while averaging more than one strikeout per inning and converting 39 out of 40 save opportunities? He and Lidge were far and away the class of the relievers.
The top-three:
- Mariano Rivera
- Joakim Soria
- Joe Nathan
National League Rolaids Relief Man of the Year: Brad Lidge
Is there any other choice? His season was actually not as impressive as Rivera’s but had a great 229 ERA+ and led all relievers (including Rivera) in WPA while having a perfect save record: 41-for-41. He was a big part of the reason why the Phillies had the league’s best relief corps.
The top-three:
- Brad Lidge
- Carlos Marmol
- Brian Fuentes
American League Silver Slugger Awards
Format: Name (PMLVr)
C: Joe Mauer (.293)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (.252)
2B: Ian Kinsler (.243)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (.322)
SS: Mike Aviles (.207)
OF: Shin-soo Choo (.280)
OF: Carlos Quentin (.261)
OF: Josh Hamilton (.222)
DH: Milton Bradley (.375)
National League Silver Slugger Awards
C: Brian McCann (.299)
1B: Albert Pujols (.497)
2B: Chase Utley (.240)
3B: Chipper Jones (.487)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (.362)
OF: Ryan Ludwick (.265)
OF: Carlos Lee (.252)
OF: Matt Holliday (.246)
P: Carlos Zambrano (.886)
Gold Glove Awards: I’m not going to bother with handing them out because there’s a lot of debate over which metrics are most accurate, and there’s no great way to prove any of it. Personally, I use RZR and OOZ, which you can find at The Hardball Times, but others think UZR and +/- are better, but UZR isn’t published and you have to pay to access +/- on Bill James Online.
As usual, you have the freedom to comment below and tell me why I’m wrong and/or to list your own picks.
17 Responses to “The 2008 MLB Awards Bonanza”
By Greg Burgas on Oct 5, 2008
While I’m not going to argue with your choices, I do wonder why strikeouts for pitchers are such a big deal. Strikeouts are fascist, after all. That’s fine, but you make the point that Lincecum’s Ks help push him over the edge. I won’t argue for Brandon Webb, but he’s not a strikeout pitcher. So what would he have to do to overcome it? And why is it so important?
I’m just wondering.
By Ernie on Oct 5, 2008
I wonder why Youkilus didnt make the top five for mvP. Isnt it pretty valuble to have someone who can play gold glove caliber defense on both corners of the infield when needed?
By Bill B. on Oct 5, 2008
I do wonder why strikeouts for pitchers are such a big deal.
There is no chance for the ball to be misplayed; the runner has no chance to reach base.
A pitcher who gets 100 strikeouts is more valuable than a pitcher who gets 100 ground balls or 100 fly balls, for instance.
I won’t argue for Brandon Webb
Webb actually has a decent amount of strikeouts but sorely lags behind Lincecum. Webb is simply not having as good a pitching season as a few other pitchers, namely the five that I mentioned.
Ernie, Youkilis is close. As for defense, if he had enough defensive innings to qualify, he’d rank 5th in the AL in RZR at third base and he ranks 6th in the AL in RZR at first base. He plays about average defense, at least this year.
In terms of offense, he played most of his innings at a position where offense is definitely not at a premium (first base) so his value is deservedly nullified.
In terms of VORP, he ranked right behind Milton Bradley, but compare their PMLVr — .375 to .252 — and you understand why Bradley is valuable while Youkilis isn’t, relatively speaking.
Here’s the definition for PMLVr, in case you’re wondering.
By ShooterB on Oct 6, 2008
The only awards that should even be up for debate are the AL MVP, the AL ROY, and of course the subjective Manager of the Year.
And in the interest of being argumentative, I’ll disagree with you on each of them.
MVP – Obviously, it depends on which stats you worship. But I think you could bring some other relevant factors in to play on this one. I would dock him points because of all the games he played as DH (no value on defense), and also all the games he missed in general. Besides, Bradley’s a complete assbag who is one short circuit away from the asylum.
ROY – Again, depends on the stats. But if it’s just on the basis that shortstop is more demanding than 3rd…I’m not too sure about that. SS certainly requires more range, but 3B requires quicker reactions and reflexes. Errors at either position can be costly. Is turning a double-play any more difficult than bare-handing a bunt for the out at 1st?
Manager – Since it’s purely subjective, I’ll go against the grain. In the AL, I’ll give it to Joe Girardi…because anybody that can work for the Steinbrenners and still resist the urge to climb a clock tower deserves some sort of trophy.
In the NL, give half of it to Ned Yost & half to Willie Randolph as a parting gift…and also for proving that firing a manager during the season does absolutely jack-shit to help your team’s chances.
By Bill B. on Oct 6, 2008
Well done, Shooter. For what it’s worth, Bradley wasn’t too far behind the others in games played. With my positional argument in favor of Aviles, their offensive production was really close and Aviles’ defense was a better at a tougher defensive position. Third base is simply not as tough as shortstop.
firing a manager during the season does absolutely jack-shit to help your team’s chances
Quoted for truth.
By ShooterB on Oct 6, 2008
I just figured that you were tired of people always agreeing with you.
“Third base is simply not as tough as shortstop.”
Since you appreciate scientific logic and reasoning…
Consider that 3rd base is located with significantly less space between the player and the crowd. Therefore, a 3rd baseman is more likely to absorb the emotional effects created by excessive criticism from overzealous fans.
Numbers don’t lie, but neither does the hurt hidden in A-Rod’s eyes.
By old_grandad on Oct 6, 2008
Re NL MVP:
Totally agree with your choice of Pujols BUT
to not have Ryan Howard (the only one of the 6 who’s still playing), who led all of baseball in HR’s and RBI’s and carried the Phils thru September on his back, as one of the top 5 seems strange.
By Bill B. on Oct 6, 2008
Shooter, if there’s one thing I learned from being at the FOX Sports blogs, it’s that I love to have people agree with me. That’s what made me so popular over there.
Old — you might be interested in reading this, which is my reasoning as to why Ryan Howard ain’t even close to the NL MVP.
HR and RBI aren’t a good way to evaluate production. RBI are more dependent on having players on base ahead of you (their on-base percentage) and HR aren’t inherently a whole lot more valuable than extra-bases in general (slugging percentage).
Pujols and many others have Howard killed when it comes to OBP and SLG, which are efficient measures of offensive production (as are VORP and PMLVr, which are Sabermetric).
By Bill Baer on Oct 7, 2008
As an addendum, I wish I had known about Joey Devine’s season when I was researching but I either glossed over his name when I was poring over the statistics or he wasn’t among the leaders in the categories I looked at, but he had a hell of a season.
He and Brad Ziegler were easily the two best relief pitchers in baseball this season.
Joey Devine: 45.7 IP, 0.59 ERA (685 ERA+), 0.832 WHIP, 49 K, 15 BB, 0 HR.
Brad Ziegler: 59.7 IP, 1.06 ERA (384 ERA+), 1.156 WHIP, 30 K, 22 BB, 2 HR.
By EH on Oct 7, 2008
Devine was indeed very, very good this year. Post DL his numbers were insane! He should close for the A’s next year, I kinda expect Street to be with the mets.
As for Ziegler, he was very good indeed. His ability to induce GBs is out of this world.
Ziegler was fairly lucky this year though. The more often he pitched, the better lefties did against him.
By SanDiegoMark on Oct 9, 2008
Granted, my Padres weren’t just a bad team this year, they were horrid. And, as a San Diego team, we’re used to being overlooked by the rest of the country. But, is anybody outside of San Diego even remotely aware of Adrian Gonzalez? (hint: he plays first base for the Padres)
His stats for the year:
162 games
.279 batting avg.
36 home runs
119 RBIs
103 runs scored
On this team?? With zero support and/or protection? And playing half his games in Petco Park!
I shudder to think how badly the Pads would’ve sucked without Adrian.
Surely, this warrants a mention for MVP.
By Bill B. on Oct 9, 2008
The reason why Gonzalez doesn’t get mentioned is because he plays first base. I’m well aware that my top-two are first basemen, but their production is so above and beyond that it’s remarkable even accounting for position.
Going by VORP, Gonzalez was the third-most-productive first baseman in the NL behind Pujols and Berkman, but he’s only got a .104 PMLVr because he’s an offense-only player at an offense-heavy position. His PMLVr ranks 37th (tied with Jayson Werth) in the NL.
Gonzalez’s season was good, no questions there, but he wasn’t even close to being as valuable (and keep in mind that I am concerned with value in the economic sense, even though we aren’t taking salaries into account) as the five guys I mentioned. An .871 OPS is good, not great, and he has no speed and plays bad defense.
By Nick Underhill on Oct 9, 2008
Not a bad list, but I do have one major qualm with it:
“Lou’s only competition here is Charlie Manuel, but his team won 97 games in a tougher division that included another 90-win team in the NL Wild Card-winning Milwaukee Brewers.”
Did you not notice what Tony LaRussa did all season in Saint Louis? He had, arguably, his best season as a manager. He stayed in contention for 7/8 of the season with Pujols and little else. He got the most out of every position possible. Maybe he shouldn’t win, but he’s in the discussion.
By Geoff Young on Oct 20, 2008
Two points on Gonzalez:
1) His OPS is “good, not great” because he plays half his games in the majors’ most difficult hitting environment. In context, his OPS is pretty close to great. Petco Park does a terrific job of disguising Gonzalez’s offensive value. For example, among all big-leaguers with 750 or more road PA since 2006, only seven have a higher road SLG.
2) He does not play bad defense. I’ve been watching Gonzalez very closely for the past 3 years, and all of his relevant defensive skills — hands, footwork, instincts, arm strength, arm accuracy — rate between above average and outstanding.
He is slow, though; I’ll give you that. Boy, is he slow…
By Bill Baer on Oct 21, 2008
I don’t know what his +/- or UZR are, but going by The Hardball Times’ RZR, he was the third-worst-fielding NL 1B among those who had enough defensive innings to qualify.
2008: .697 RZR, 10th out of 12 qualified 1B
2007: .722 RZR, 7th out of 12
2006: .809 RZR, 5th out of 13
Looks like his glove has gotten worse with each passing season. I guess that’s not too surprising.
I don’t disagree with you about Gonzalez vs. Petco, but he played half his games there and put up a sub-.800 OPS. Stadium or not, that’s not MVP-caliber stuff. The “Petco holds him back” argument would have weight if we were just comparing players (like Adrian vs. Ryan Howard), but we’re talking about value.
By the way, I’ve been dreaming up some trade scenarios in my head, like the Padres sending Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez to the Phillies for season tickets. I know the Padres are looking for a second baseman, but is there any other position they’re desperate to fill?
By Geoff Young on Nov 4, 2008
Bill, sorry for the delay in responding — been swamped. What intrigues me is that from a visual standpoint, Gonzalez’ defense hasn’t changed over the past few seasons. So now I’m wondering whether RZR is doing an adequate job of measuring his ability, or whether Gonzalez is in fact measuring RZR’s utility, say, for first baseman. I don’t know the answer to that but it might make for an interesting study.
As for his OPS at home, I can see your point sort of, but it’s important to remember that the league had a 673 OPS at Petco in ’08. We’re talking about the most extreme pitching environment in baseball.
As to Peavy, the Padres aren’t really seeking a second baseman (although I’m sure they’d make an exception for a certain SoCal product who now plays in Philly
). My understanding is that they’d want a few good young pitchers in any potential deal.