How Many Would Bonds Have Hit [at Home]?

I was pleased to see that my “How Many Would Bonds Have Hit?” article got a lot of feedback, mostly positive, some negative. At the end of my analysis, I asked readers to let me know if I fudged my math at all, and I was told by two readers that I had made two errors: I used Bonds’ home park factor for all of his career HR, instead of just his home HR; and I “turned” all of Bonds’ intentional walks into hypothetical at-bats, instead of using a league-average, or the top-five average I implemented.

The intentional walks issue is minuscule, as the league-average would probably be less than 2, so I’m not going to bother with that. But I definitely need to edit my math (and the title!), using the park factor only to account for homeruns Bonds hit at home.

The adjustment I made doesn’t need a lot of explanation. I simply just created another column for Bonds’ homeruns hit at home, and divided that by the park factor. When that math is done, we find that Bonds has an adjusted 569 homeruns hit at home. Then, we add that to his road homeruns (382, including tonight’s homerun in Florida against the Marlins), and we come up with 951 homeruns.

In the interest of accuracy, I should also adjust for his road homeruns, but that’s just a lot of work. I’d have to find the park factor of every ballpark Bonds played in for each of his 22 seasons.

[Click for full image] That is definitely more realistic than 1,056 — 105 less homeruns, but if I had adjusted for his road homeruns as well, Bonds’ total would likely be back in the four-digits.

You can download the updated spreadsheet here.

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