Comments on: How Many Would Bonds Have Hit?

By: billbaer

billbaer — Sun, 19 Aug 2007 02:59:43 +0000

My Hero Zero,

To account for expansion is something beyond my capabilities. That might be something the guys at Baseball Prospectus or The Hardball Times could embark on, as that would involve a plethora of databases and calculations.

I don’t think the increase in homeruns given up per 9 innings by pitchers plays any sort of a factor in adjusting hitters’ homerun totals.

Aaron actually played in parks that were slightly more hitter-friendly than Bonds did, so, if anything, Aaron’s homerun totals would go down (before adjusting for walks, of course, but he didn’t walk anywhere near as much as Bonds — 1,400 to 2,500).

By: My Hero Zero

My Hero Zero — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 22:01:32 +0000

The geek in me loves the math, but I think you’re missing a variable; the impact of expansion. While somewhat of a subjective factor, wouldn’t you have to adjust for the overall increase in HRs given up per 9 innings (and the subsequent rise in ERA) since Hank’s day? While that may not affect Bonds’ totals, it certainly limited Aaron’s.

By: gf

gf — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 20:08:18 +0000

I wonder what Bill Jenkinson would think about this…

By: rret

rret — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 20:03:31 +0000

Bonds was a better baseball player then Aaron before 2000. He doesn’t need 73 homeruns or the record to prove it.

And Aaron admitted to using greenies.

By: billbaer

billbaer — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 19:47:27 +0000

Tom, that is why I made Bonds' "adjusted walks total" an average of the top-five leaders in walks. Bonds was abnormally pitched around (both intentionally and unintentionally) and no one in baseball history has been able to match it.

Mike, you'd first have to prove that Bonds used steroids. Then, you'd have to be able to quantify how much steroids helped Bonds (and it differs from person to person).

Same with the "juiced" baseball. You'd have to prove that it is, in fact, "juiced," and then you'd have to quantify how much it is "juiced."

As for Aaron, Milwaukee's County Stadium favored pitchers more than hitters, but not by much.

Atlanta's Fulton County Stadium was essentially neutral in terms of favoring hitters or pitchers.

By: Mike

Mike — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 16:20:29 +0000

What is the adjustment for steroids? Let’s see…would it be, just guessing, 300 less than Hank Aaron? While we are getting carried away with Fertilizer factors, you forgot to “adjust” Hanks HR’s with today’s “juiced” baseball. There were some parks not so friendly in Hank’s day, like Death Valley in the Polo Grounds. The only great park he was in was Fulton County Stadium, the rest were more formidable. There might be more adjustments, will have to investigate this further.

By: Tom Hanrahan

Tom Hanrahan — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 13:36:42 +0000

whatifs? are often nice postulations, and on the surface the author made what seem like reasonable asumptions. Of course, if Bonds really was going to hit ONE HUNDRED FORTY THREE home runs one year, maybe he WOULD get walked a lot??? Jesus Christ (or the flying spaghetti monster, if he/she was athletic) would almost never hit a home run in the major leagues; every AB would be a walk, and it’s silly to project otherwise.

By: GM-Carson

GM-Carson — Fri, 17 Aug 2007 08:16:45 +0000

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