NL East Preview: Washington Nationals

by Bill Baer on March 14th, 2010
Posted in Interviews, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies | Print | 1 Comment »

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

2009 Record: 59-103, 5th in NL East
2009 Pythagorean Record: 64-98 (+5 differential)
Current PECOTA 2010 Projection: 76-86 (5th in NL East)
BDD Preview of the Nationals by Jeff Lubbers

The Washington Nationals will kick off the NL East previews this week here at Crashburn Alley. I was able to flag down my favorite Nationals blogger Steven Biel of Fire Jim Bowden to answer some questions about his team. No, the Nationals aren’t expected to compete for a playoff spot nor are they even expected to sniff .500, but it’s not all doom and gloom in Washington. Phenom Stephen Strasburg is on the horizon and ready to take the Majors by storm and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has emerged as one of baseball’s most productive players, finishing 2009 as one of eight position players with 7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) or more.

Are Strasburg and Zimmerman enough to bring hope to the nation’s capital? Let’s see what Steven thinks of the Nats going into 2010.

. . .

1. When should fans plan to buy tickets to watch Stephen Strasburg’s MLB debut?

Mike Rizzo really emphasizes not rushing prospects, and he seems to have decided (correctly in my view) that regardless of how wicked Strasburg is on the mound, it would be rushing to ask him throw his first professional pitch in a big league game. Also, you have the risk of funky weather in April and the financial incentives to delay the start of the arbitration clock… all that I think points to a mid-June call-up at the earliest. Jim Riggleman spoke this week about a 158 inning limit for Strasburg this year, so I would imagine that you’ll see him pitching for the Nationals from shortly after Memorial Day until maybe Labor Day, and then they’ll shut him down, again, assuming all goes well.

2. Ryan Zimmerman was one of eight position players in the Majors worth 7 WAR last year. CHONE projects 5 WAR for him in 2010. Where do you see him finishing?

A 5-win player is still a perennial all-star, and with his glove, he’d have to really regress at the plate to fall below that level. I would say 5 WAR could be pretty close to his floor, assuming he’s healthy. I would expect some regression though from last season at the plate. He just took a huge leap from 2008 to 2009, and usually there’s some fall-back after a breakthrough year like that. So I’ll put the over-under at 6.0.

3. Adam Dunn drew some ire from the likes of Marty Brennaman and J.P. Ricciardi prior to coming to Washington. Is he well-received in Washington?

Getting criticized by J.P. Ricciardi is kind of a sign that you’re on the right track, no? Dunn has a dry sense of humor and mellow, country boy personality, so you can see how that might have been misread as complacency when he was younger. But all you hear from the team is that he’s a great presence in the clubhouse and a great competitor. He’s close with Zimmerman and Josh Willingham. Rizzo loves Dunn, and he cares a ton about clubhouse chemistry–more than he should, in my opinion, though that could be a function of just trying to clean up some of the worst excesses of the Jim Bowden home for misguided youth. Bottom line, Dunn is well-liked by fans and in fact probably quite a bit overrated as a player, given his enormous defensive deficiencies.

4. Besides Strasburg, give the readers a hint at another young pitcher who could contribute a lot to the Nationals this year.

Drew Storen was drafted as a signable, low-ceiling, major-league ready college reliever with the #10 pick last year. If he’s not pitching in at least medium-leverage innings by July 4, something’s gone wrong.

After that, there isn’t anything close to an impact arm anywhere in the organization–just a lot of guys who project as 5th starters at best, like Craig Stammen, Ross Detwiler, Collin Balester, Garrett Mock, Matt Chico, etc.

I’ll give you one guy who your readers probably haven’t heard about–Aaron Thompson, the lefty who came over from Florida in the Nick Johnson trade last summer. He’s a former #1 pick (2005) who has progressed slowly but steadily and really turned a corner last year in AA. His fastball sits at 90-91, and he has the strong groundball tendencies Rizzo loves. I would be surprised if you don’t see him at some point in 2010.

5. The Nats are expected to take Bryce Harper with the first pick in the draft this year, but he won’t help out the 2010 squad. Jesus Flores has had shoulder issues and won’t be ready for Opening Day, making Ivan Rodriguez the everyday catcher. Do you think he still has enough left in the tank?

Derek Norris is actually their top catching talent in the organization and one of the best catching prospects in baseball. The job will be his by hopefully next year. It’s awfully hard to say what position Bryce Harper will play eventually. I don’t think they’ll draft for positional need with that pick anyway.

As you said, Flores hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but he also hasn’t actually been that good. He had great luck on balls in play in a small sample size last year, so this line looks better than it was. In 2008 he was really pretty awful and should have been in the minors. His strikeout rate just keeps going up. He’s actually not a particularly strong defensive catcher. In a better organization, a guy like this wouldn’t get nearly so much ink.

Predictions

MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie/Manager of the Year winners

For the Nationals, MVP will be Zimmerman, Cy Young will be I guess Jason Marquis by default, and their rookie of the year will be Strasburg of course.

In the NL, I’ll go with Albert Pujols for MVP and Roy Halladay for Cy Young. Hard to pick against those two. For rookie of the year I’ll go out on a limb and say Jason Castro. For manager of the year, I’ll guess Bobby Cox wins in a sympathy vote for his last season.

Nationals regular season win total

I’m not ready to make the official prediction that I’ll be held to, but it won’t be far from 70 in either direction.

Place in NL East

Last place.

. . .

Keep up with the Nationals this season by checking out Fire Jim Bowden, one of my favorite blogs on the Internets.  Aside from being a great blogger, Steven Biel was among many responsible for helping send Mark Zuckerman to Viera, Florida to cover the Nationals during spring training. The team had no independent beat writers, and Zuckerman was asking for a meager $5,000 to take the case himself. With the help of Biel and other kind souls throughout the baseball blogosphere (including Brian Oliver of Nationals Farm Authority and Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner and FanGraphs), Zuckerman was able to afford the trip and provide Nationals fans with the independent news that fans of other the 29 teams enjoy and often take for granted.

Tomorrow, we will preview the New York Mess Mets with Steve Keane of Kranepool Society.

Begrudgingly Addressing the Howard-Pujols Rumor

by Bill Baer on March 14th, 2010
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 3 Comments »

If you were away from the Internet today, you missed the big rumor. Per ESPN’s Buster Olney:

[...] according to sources, an idea has been kicked around the Phillies’ organization internally, with discussions about proposing a swap of slugger Ryan Howard for St. Louis superstar Albert Pujols.

Hold on to your hats, folks.

It’s not fully clear whether the Phillies actually have approached the Cardinals with the idea, and even if St. Louis were to seriously consider such an offer[...]

In other words, don’t expect this trade to actually happen.

The last time we bloggers called B.S. on a trade rumor, we got burned big time by Ken Rosenthal. However, as The Yankee Universe noted on Twitter, the difference is that “we knew Roy was getting traded, just not for what”. There has been no real momentum in Ryan Howard trade talks (except by yours truly) and this is really the first legitimate mention of an Albert Pujols trade.

Overall, the pieces don’t add up to make this rumor realistic. The Cardinals recently signed outfielder Matt Holliday to a seven-year, $120 million contract. That was a good will gesture on the part of the Cardinals organization to show Pujols that they are committed to putting a competitive team on the field year after year. Pujols, of course, will be a free agent after 2011 and the Cardinals want to do as much as they can to convince him to stay in St. Louis and perhaps even take a hometown discount.

The Cardinals payroll currently sits at about $90 million going into 2010. Holliday and Pujols, at $17 million and $16 million respectively, represent about 37% of the Cardinals’ total payroll. That percentage only figures to increase when Pujols does eventually re-sign. That may sound like bad economics but the Cardinals wouldn’t have signed Holliday to that contract if they didn’t feel like they could make a legitimate pitch to Pujols to keep him in St. Louis.

As for the Phillies, it doesn’t make sense from their end either. Both Pujols and Howard are free agents after 2011 and both are expected to strike big in free agency if they aren’t re-signed. Both will net their teams a first round draft pick and a sandwich pick if they sign elsewhere. Pujols, clearly the better player, will make $2 million less than Howard this year and $3 million less in 2011. While it appears that the Phillies would save money, they likely would have to send money along with Howard to offset the difference.

Presumably the Phillies would want to sign their first baseman to a long-term contract. They are much more likely to accomplish this with Ryan Howard than with Albert Pujols, who may join Alex Rodriguez in the annual $30 million salary club.

This is all without mentioning the obvious chasm in value between the two players. Last year, Howard was worth 4.8 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs. He has accrued about 19.5 WAR since 2006, an average of about 5 WAR per season. Pujols was worth 8.5 WAR and has been worth 33 WAR since 2006, an average of 8.25 per season. Whether the Cardinals and Phillies value their first basemen in this fashion is unknown, but it seems ludicrous to think that anyone would put Howard anywhere near the pedestal upon which Pujols rests.

Adding to the lack of realism of this rumor is the Jayson Werth situation. Werth is a free agent after this season and the team will decide if they can afford to re-sign him and if they will choose to offer him a contract. If Werth doesn’t re-sign, then the Phillies will have to re-sign Ryan Howard or they will face the prospect of having two significant holes to fill in two consecutive years (and only one can be filled with Domonic Brown, an unproven quantity). GM Ruben Amaro has been very stingy with the length of contracts he offers to players, adhering to a limit of three guaranteed years.

Losing Werth (avg. 4.5 WAR) + trading Howard (avg. 5 WAR) + trading prospects + sending cash for 3-4 years of Albert Pujols (avg. 8.25 WAR) simply isn’t worth it. For the amount of money that the Phillies would have to pay Pujols, they could re-sign Werth and Howard while clearing salary by trading Shane Victorino, for example (which has the added effect of losing a lesser player in creating a job for Domonic Brown).

Perhaps the most glaring factor in this is that the Phillies, after all of their recent trading, have a Minor League system that ranks in the bottom-third in baseball according to most respected publications. To acquire Pujols, the Phillies would have to offer at least two good prospects and their farm system would quickly jettison to the bottom of the barrel.

What the Cliff Lee/Roy Halladay mega-deal showed us was that Amaro is very cognizant of his Minor League system and isn’t willing to mortgage the long-term goal for short-term gains. Simply put, if Amaro was the type to trade Howard, cash, and two top prospects to St. Louis for Pujols, Lee would still be wearing Phillies pinstripes in 2010.

Besides, what kind of a season do you think Brad Lidge would have with Pujols in the clubhouse?

Programming Note: NL East Previews

by Bill Baer on March 13th, 2010
Posted in Interviews, MLB, Philadelphia Phillies | Print | No Comments »

It’s March and that means team previews are popping up around the baseball blogosphere. If you haven’t been following along, there’s a new one every day in March at Baseball Daily Digest and they’ve been great so far. Personally, I like to nail a bunch of birds with a few stones, so I’m going to be interviewing some of my favorite bloggers around the NL East for thoughts on their teams going into 2010. Here’s what it will look like (hopefully):

On Friday, I’m hoping to get a bunch of Phillies bloggers together to tackle a bunch of questions. I already have about 15 bloggers signed up, but there’s no limit. If you have a Phillies blog (doesn’t matter how big or small) and would like to participate, send an e-mail to CrashburnAlley [at] Gmail.com and let me know. Include your blog URL so I can link to it.

As for me, I’ll have a couple Phillies previews popping up at Baseball Daily Digest and The Hardball Times at the end of the month as well as providing a short blurb for ESPN’s Rob Neyer. Stay tuned for that.

Placido Polanco Doesn’t Need Your Pity

by Bill Baer on March 12th, 2010
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics | Print | 2 Comments »

When speaking about a woman, saying “she has a great personality” is interpreted as “she’s ugly”. It’s a weak compliment, and it’s weak because there isn’t much else to compliment. The baseball equivalent is to laud a player by saying that his contributions don’t show up in the box score, for they are intangible (and thus can never be disproven). David Eckstein can barely hit the ball out of the infield, but he’s gritty and scrappy and has heart.

Baseball traditionalists use stats to compliment a player truly worthy of praise. Hank Aaron’s 755 career home runs; Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak; Cal Ripken’s 2,632 consecutive games played, etc. are prominent examples. Even if one is completely ignorant of Sabermetrics, people still default to numbers, which makes the praise of a player’s intangibles all the more transparent. If a player is good, his numbers are cited. If his numbers aren’t brought up, then he probably wasn’t that good.

John Finger of CSNPhilly.com recently wrote an article praising Polanco, saying that his contributions can’t be found in stat form. It’s amusing because Polanco is not in need of the assistance. He’s been a second baseman with a career .761 OPS. Not exactly Chase Utley numbers, but he’s been about average offensively at a premium defensive position. He also happens to have been a very, very good fielder at second base.

This is not David Eckstein we’re talking about, he of the career .358 slugging percentage; he of the noodle arm who must muster all of the strength in his body to toss the ball to first base.

This is Placido Polanco. Among second basemen in the 2000’s, there have been just 20 player-seasons in which a player has racked up 500 or more plate appearances and struck out 46 or fewer times. Polanco is responsible for six of them (30%). Three of the top-five slugging percentages belong to him. He doesn’t strike out much and can hit for some power (despite being quoted as saying he can’t in Finger’s article).

At second base, where he has racked up nearly 8,500 innings, his UZR/150 is at an even 10.0, meaning that for every 150 opportunities, Polanco will make ten more plays than the average second baseman. At third base, a position he hasn’t played regularly since 2002, he has a 9.9 UZR/150.

As for base running, Baseball Prospectus thinks he’s been a boon as well. Using EqBRR (definition), he’s been at 1.3, 3.0, and 0.8 over the last three years. Pedro Feliz, on the other hand, was at -5.6 and -0.7 in 2009 and ‘08 with the Phillies.

Bringing it all together, FanGraphs values him at 28 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) since 2002, an average of about 3.5 WAR per season. In that span of time, he’s been worth $100 million ($12.5 million per season) and been paid a meager $31.6 million (about $4 million per season). On average, Polanco has been worth about three times as much as he’s been paid, meaning that the Phillies and Tigers have really gotten their money’s worth with him.

Among all second baseman over the past three years, only Chase Utley (23.6 WAR), Dustin Pedroia (15.7), and Brian Roberts (12.5) have been more valuable than Polanco (11.4).

Finger writes, “there’s just something the grizzled baseball men see in Polanco that defies measurement.”

This is insulting to Polanco! The numbers beautify his contributions on the baseball field. No, he’s not the “three true outcomes” basher that have been popularized by Sabermetrics, like Adam Dunn. However, would a “grizzled baseball man” claim that Polanco was more valuable than both Ryan Zimmerman and Jose Reyes in 2007? More valuable than Carl Crawford and Derek Jeter in ‘05?

It’s true that there may be some facets of Polanco’s game that aren’t quantified on Baseball Reference or FanGraphs or Baseball Prospectus. I’m sure he’s great in the clubhouse. However, to focus on those aspects instead of what is staring you right in the face — his average offense, his incredible defense at second base, his ability to run the bases intelligently — is to completely misunderstand and underestimate Polanco’s value on the baseball field.

Polanco does not need the window dressing compliments reserved for the David Ecksteins of the baseball world. He’s been good enough to throw his hat in the ring with the best in the game.

Despite being complimentary of Polanco here and admitting that GM Ruben Amaro signed Polanco for well under market value, I still remain a critic of the signing. I don’t like signing an aging player to a multi-year deal to play a position he hasn’t played regularly since 2002. I don’t like paying $6 million on average for Polanco when Chone Figgins, who has more upside, was signed for $9 million on average.

To criticize the signing is not to criticize the player, however. We can say, at the same time, that the Phillies should not have signed the fourth-most valuable second baseman of the past three years to a below market contract. We can recognize Polanco’s value while still being critical.

. . .

My first entry at Baseball Prospectus should be up at 9 AM EST today. Click here and it should be at the top at that time.

EDIT: Here it is.

I am currently working on Phillies previews for The Hardball Times and Baseball Daily Digest. Both should run at the end of the month. Additionally, ESPN is also asking for my input on the Phillies. Stay tuned for that. I’ll provide appropriate links as they become available.

Formidable Opponent: The #5 Spot

by Bill Baer on March 11th, 2010
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies | Print | 5 Comments »

Jamie Moyer, 47, is recovering from three off-season surgeries on three torn groin muscles, the meniscus in his right knee, and pooled blood in his abdomen. His 2009 was forgettable as he finished with a 4.94 ERA and was removed from the starting rotation in favor of Pedro Martinez. As a mop-up reliever, Moyer was successful with a 1.93 ERA and a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That compares favorably to his 5.34 ERA and 2:1 K:BB as a starter.

Kyle Kendrick, nearly half Moyer’s age at 25, spent most of his time in AAA Lehigh Valley last year. He rebounded from a rough 2008 season in which he started 30 games and posted an ERA of 5.49. With Lehigh Valley, Kendrick posted a 3.34 ERA in 24 starts. He had made four sporadic appearances with the Major League club between June and August, but earned a larger role in the bullpen when he was called up prior to his September 13 appearance against the New York Mets. In 21 innings, including two spot starts, Kendrick earned a clean 3.00 ERA and became a key contributor in an otherwise blase Phillies bullpen.

Both pitchers have bolted out to good starts in spring training. In five innings — all against the New York Yankees — Kendrick has allowed a meager two hits. He has yet to walk a batter and has struck out two. Moyer has only started in B-games thus far, but tossed three scoreless innings and allowed just one hit against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Who should win the #5 spot? It’s a debate that can only be settled with an adversary who matches my wit and intelligence: myself! In a complete rip-off of the Formidable Opponent segment from The Colbert Report, I will debate myself about the #5 battle.

. . .

Jamie Moyer should win the spot. He’s 47 and has ton of baseball experience under his belt. Kyle Kendrick has only started one game in the playoffs while Moyer has started in eight.

Experience doesn’t always equate with skill. While the projections don’t peg either as being particularly good, CHONE favors Kendrick’s ERA over Moyers, 4.88 to 5.13. Ditto PECOTA, 4.93 to 5.68. Looking back to last year, SIERA also favored Kendrick in his limited time to Moyer, 4.28 to 4.74.

Well, the Phillies are paying $6.5 million to Moyer this season while Kendrick will make about $500,000 and is under team control for at least three more years. They’re not going to pay Moyer that much to pitch out of the mop-up role in the bullpen when Kendrick can simply be sent down to Lehigh.

Ruben Amaro has shown he won’t assign jobs based on salary. Last year, the team paid Adam Eaton and Geoff Jenkins a combined $15,583,333 to not play baseball in Philadelphia. This year, they’re paying Jenkins $1.25 million and Eaton $500,000 to stay out.

What about when the Phillies promised Chan Ho Park he would start when they signed him last year? He was awful as a starter, his ERA was 7.29 before going to the bullpen.

Exactly — Park was ineffective so he moved to the bullpen. Even if the Phillies award him the #5 spot out of spring training, Moyer won’t have much room for error with Kendrick breathing down his neck. Moyer winning the job out of spring training doesn’t mean much; it especially doesn’t mean that the Phillies will refuse to remove him from that role if he falters.

Both Ruben Amaro and Rich Dubee have said that Moyer is the favorite to win the #5 spot out of spring training.

There are likely a couple components to that: 1) they are throwing the old man a bone as he was miffed about his demotion last year; they don’t want Moyer to sulk in spring training, and 2) they don’t want to demotivate either player; in this case, Kendrick would have a goal to strive for, and Moyer won’t feel like he’s at the end of the line.

Even if that’s true, isn’t it better for the Phillies to simply give the spot to Moyer and let Kendrick get another year of seasoning in the Minors? As you mentioned, he’s only 25 and he doesn’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of opposing batters. Working on adding new pitches — he’s been Roy Halladay’s shadow during spring training, working on a cutter — would be best for him in the long run, especially since he hasn’t even hit arbitration yet.

Does Kendrick really fit in with the team’s long-term plans? A pitcher who averages under four strikeouts per nine innings isn’t exactly the type of pitcher you pencil in the rotation three years from now. I think the Phillies and Kendrick both benefit if he wins the #5 spot, or at least if he eats up the lion’s share of starts out of that spot in the rotation. He can build up his trade value to other teams, something which Moyer cannot do with his age, recent ineffectiveness, and injury concerns. If J.C. Romero isn’t able to be relied upon in the bullpen, the team could use Kendrick to acquire a LOOGY at the trading deadline. Only Antonio Bastardo, of the Phillies’ in-house LOOGY candidates, showed a significant platoon split with a 4.02 FIP vs. right-handers and a 2.24 FIP vs. left-handers over his Minor League career.

If you trade Kendrick this July, presumably after a good first-half of the season, then you’re just putting Moyer back in that spot anyway but with fewer reliable fall-back options. You’re not going to insert Jose Contreras in the rotation unless he’s been bombing as a reliever, and then after him you have Ryan Vogelsong who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the Majors since 2006.

Kendrick doesn’t have to be traded. If he’s pitching well — let’s say a 4.50 ERA — then you can just keep him there for the duration of the season. Since he’s a free agent after the season anyway, the Phillies could pay the remainder of Jamie Moyer’s salary and ship him to another team in exchange for a LOOGY or a C-grade prospect. I would imagine, however, that the market is much drier for Moyer, which is why I suggested trading Kendrick if he pitches well.

I don’t like the idea of giving up on Kendrick, even though I don’t think he should win the #5 spot over Moyer. Moyer’s story, actually, is a good reminder of why shouldn’t just give up on young pitchers. Moyer had two good seasons out of nine before being sent to Seattle in 1996. With his nine full seasons in Seattle, he finished with a sub-4.00 ERA six times. The Cubs, Rangers, Cardinals, Orioles, and Red Sox all had Moyer at some point and tossed him aside. You know that Kendrick is making a concerted effort to improve, so is it that crazy to think he can’t improve on his sub-4 K/9 rate? The Phillies don’t necessarily need him now but they may next year or two years from now.

But will the Minors do Kendrick any good? He has over 300 innings of experience in the Majors with a track record of success despite his 4.66 career ERA. Will going back to AAA, where he threw 143 innings last year, do him any good? He can learn while simultaneously pitching out of the back of the Phillies rotation. He won’t be chastised for poor performances unless he puts up Adam Eaton-esque numbers. I think the Phillies are in a similar situation with Kendrick as the Eagles are in with Kevin Kolb. If you see him contributing to the team in the future, then you need to use him now and let him take his lumps. If not, then Kendrick/Kolb are owed the chance to start elsewhere.

. . .

The arguments in summation:

  • Moyer should win because it allows Kendrick more time to develop his secondary pitches, gives the Phillies more depth, and justifies the $6.5 million they will be paying him this year.
  • Kendrick should win because he is the better pitcher by all of the advanced metrics, the Phillies can build up his trade value and acquire another player who can contribute elsewhere, and Moyer is simply unreliable due to his age, recent ineffectiveness, and injury concerns.

Which argument makes the most sense to you? Speak out in the comments below.

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